Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
Figure 4.2 CO2 Emissions Allocated to Economic Sector
Climate change will alter weather patterns across the world and lead to an increased occurrence of
significant weather events. The most severe events will lead to major disruptions, including partial
or complete evacuations, more-frequent instances of washouts, landslides, and flash flooding.
Severe winds will topple trees and scatter debris across our transportation facilities. These events
will lead to abrupt and unpredictable lane or road closures affecting passengers and freight on both
rail and highways. Severe weather events in the Gulf Coast region may frequently damage oil
refineries, causing spikes in motor vehicle fuel prices such as the one that occurred after the 2005
hurricane season impaired several domestic refineries.
Adverse weather conditions pose a significant threat to the operation of the nation’s roads.
According to the National Research Council, motorists endure more than 500 million hours of
delay each year as a result of fog, snow, and ice. Rain, which occurs more frequently than snow,
ice, and fog, leads to even greater delay. Under extreme conditions (such as snowstorms), travel
times can increase by as much as 50 percent. Adverse weather not only degrades traffic flow and
increases travel times, but also degrade transportation safety. Aside from these direct weather
effects, climate change will lead to other trends that affect travel-time reliability. Policymakers
may begin to implement hard-line measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These measures
could include adoption of zero-VMT growth policies, heavy taxation of oil, and increased fuel
economy standards. In these cases, the importance of integration - coordinating the use of shared
resources among agencies and conflicting activities - will be critical at key locations in our
transportation system, including intermodal transfer facilities.
ENERGY COSTS AND AVAILABILITY
The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), prepared by the Energy Information
Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices
through 2030, based on results from EIAs National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The
projections in AEO2009 look beyond current economic and financial woes and focus on factors
that drive U.S. energy markets in the longer term. Key issues highlighted in AEO2009 include:
TRENDS AFFECTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page 39