130925-studie-wildlife-comeback-in-europe

Historical Past Present
Species Family Year
Area
(km 2 )
Year
Area
(km 2 )
Range
change
(%) Trend Year
Area
(km 2 )
Range
change
(%) to
historical
Trend
to
historical
Range
change (%)
to past
Trend
to
past
Bison bonasus Bovidae 1890 42,074 1971 45,276 7.6 + 2011 14,080 -66.5 – -68.9 –
Capra ibex Bovidae 1800 208 1967 36,033 17,223 + 2008 15,602 7,401 + -56.7 –
Capra pyrenaica Bovidae 1900 325,672 1967 25,507 -92.2 – 2008 57,538 -82.3 – 125.6 +
Rupicapra pyrenaica Bovidae 1955 38,891 2008 15,130 -61.1 –
Rupicapra rupicapra Bovidae 1955 362,556 2008 206,755 -43.0 –
Alces alces Cervidae 1810 1,602,791 1955 4,051,444 152.8 + 2008 4,454,951 177.9 + 10.0 +
Capreolus capreolus Cervidae 1900 2,274,768 1967 4,803,807 76.3 + 2008 6,097,612 123.8 + 26.9 +
Cervus elaphus Cervidae 1955 1,279,674 2008 3,671,669 186.9 +
Sus scrofa Suidae 1890 4,838,067 1955 4,531,092 -6.3 – 2008 5,339,537 10.4 + 17.8 +
Castor fiber Castoridae 1955 256,573 2013 1,668,697 550.4 +
Canis aureus Canidae 1955 417,164 2011 198,042 -52.5 –
Canis lupus Canidae 1800 5,426,047 1960 2,657,659 -51.0 – 2008 2,685,531 -50.5 – 1.0 +
Lynx lynx Felidae 1800 6,853,110 1960 3,553,494 -48.2 – 2010 4,392,088 -35.9 – 23.6 +
Lynx pardinus Felidae pre-1900 106,233 1960 61,048 -42.5 – 2008 1,265 -98.8 – -97.9 –
Gulo gulo Mustelidae 1850 5,210,522 1955 1,977,446 -62.0 – 2012 1,937,527 -62.8 – -2.0 –
Halichoerus grypus Phocidae 1955 1,901,193 2008 1,682,976 -11.5 –
Phoca vitulina Phocidae 1599 1,938,999 1956 1,800,407 -7.1 – 2008 2,071,955 6.9 + 15.1 +
Ursus arctos Ursidae 1700 9,467,438 1955 3,443,725 -63.6 – 2008 3,892,423 -58.9 – 13.0 +
taken from various publications, thus spatial
resolution varied between species and time period.
There was no grid-based atlas data available as was
the case for birds. As a result, it is likely that some
of the spatial range change patterns observed
arise from issues with the resolution of range data.
Specifically, past and historical range data are
likely to be less spatially detailed, and it is more
likely that species ranging over larger areas are
depicted to have a continuous distribution across
space, compared to species with smaller ranges for
which it is easier to depict discontinuities in range.
More recent mapping is also likely to depict more
spatial detail: present species maps are often based
on habitat suitability modelling, which gives rise
to greater spatial detail and introduces discontinu-
ities into species range. It is important that we find
techniques to reconcile these spatial resolution
issues in order to derive a robust metric of wildlife
comeback. At present, abundance change data
appears to provide us with a much more robust
measure of mammal comeback. However, keeping
these caveats in mind, we believe that some broadscale
patterns can be derived from our analyses,
particularly with regard to some of the more
widespread species whose range size pattern is
likely to be less affected by spatial resolution.
Despite these caveats, consideration of spatial
distribution data can provide us with broad-scale
clues as to why there is such marked variation in
abundance. A comparison of past (1950s/60s for
mammals, 1980s for birds) and present distributions
Table 1b.
Historical, past and
present distribution
areas for 18 mammal
species, including
range changes.
Historical: pre-1900;
Past: 1955–71; Present:
2008–2013.
250
200
% range change
150
100
50
-100 100 300 500 700 900 1100
-50
-100
% abundance change
Figure 6.
Percentage range
change of mammal
species versus %
abundance change
between past
and present day,
excluding extreme
outliers European
bison and Eurasian
beaver.
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