130925-studie-wildlife-comeback-in-europe

tunity for recovery, but with on-going exploitation
populations continued to decline [23] . Although the
species has not been formally protected since the
Second World War, changes in hunting practices
and forestry have allowed the species to become
widespread and numerous [23] .
Abundance and distribution: changes
% change
400
300
200
100
0
In 1810, the Eurasian elk was distributed across an
area of around 160,000 km 2 in a number of isolated
populations. These ranged across south-central
Sweden and Norway, Finnish and Russian Karelia,
southeastern Murmansk, and some of European
Russia. One continuous population ranged from
Arkhangelsk to the Urals, another large population
reached from the Moscow region into Belarus, and
there were also five smaller satellite populations
(Figure 1a). By 1955, the species’ range had increased
by around 150%, connecting formerly isolated areas
(Figure 1a). Continued expansion resulted in an
occupied area that was estimated to be 280% larger
than the 1810 distribution in 2008 (Figures 1a and b).
With significant spread into central Europe, the elk’s
current distribution encompasses Scandinavia,
most of northern and central European Russia
and two-thirds of Poland. It is also reaching into
Germany, northern Austria, the southern Czech
Republic, northern and western Belarus and northwestern
Ukraine (Figures 1a and B), as well as the
northern Caucasus lowlands [11] . However, there have
also been contractions in range in southern Belarus,
Ukraine and Denmark (Figures 1a and b).
This overall positive trend in distribution is in
line with change in population size. Monitored
populations of the Eurasian elk in Europe appear
to have increased in abundance by around 220%
between 1964 and 2005 (Figure 2), although there
is large regional variation underlying this average.
The greatest recovery occurred in the 1960s, as has
been reported in the literature [24] , with population
size increasing by 210%. The rate of growth then
slowed, with a 25% increase in the 1970s, and
stability or slight decline thereafter (Figure 2). It
should be noted, however, that this overall trend
may be masking differences at the regional level, as
numbers have increased markedly in Scandinavia
in recent decades [11] . The overall trend reported
here is based on 18 populations from the species’
current range, covering a minimum of 322,000
individuals. This therefore represents 45% of
the total estimated European population from
2004–7, covering around 75% of the species’ range
countries. Population abundance data are missing
from the western edge of the elk’s range, namely
western Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany.
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Drivers of recovery
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000–05 1964–2005
A review of the literature suggests that while
overall trends are positive, the European elk
experienced three phases of decline in eastern
Europe from which this resurgence has taken
place [26] . The fragmented distribution of the species
in the early 1800s (Figure 1a) was likely the result
of the first phase of decline between 1800 and
1850 [26] , which was marked by gradual change, local
extirpation and range contraction followed by
swift recovery [26] . The second phase in the 1920s,
attributed to over-exploitation resulting from
economic hardship and famine, led to smaller
range decreases than previously, but recovery
was delayed for unknown reasons [26] . Populations
recovered with the reoccupation of the forest
zone, although this process was slow due to the
destruction of a formerly healthy population
structure [26] . Our analysis showed a slight decrease
from 1990 (Figure 2), which matches the third
phase of decline normally attributed to political
instability leading to inappropriate management
decisions [26] .
The variability in population change in the data
set means that clear reasons for wildlife comeback
are difficult to discern, but there are common
themes (Table 3). Regional-level trends show that
populations in eastern Europe have declined, while
northern European elk (e.g. from Finland, Norway,
Poland, and Sweden) have fared better. In addition,
populations from boreal forest and taiga biomes
showed increases in abundance, while temperate
broad-leafed forest and temperate grasslands
have decreased. Management was found to have
a positive effect on European elk abundance in a
range of locations, which included the adoption
of new hunting principles in Russia and Finland,
reforestation in Finland, and legal protection in
Poland.
Historically, declines resulted from high levels
of hunting and poaching, as well as predation by
wolves and bears across Europe, e.g. Finland [27] ,
Figure 2.
Change in Eurasian
elk population
abundance by
decade and overall
change between
1964 and 2005. Please
note that due to the
way change was
calculated, decadal
change does not sum
to overall change.
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