Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 1
4-20
the basic policy case than in the reference case. According to EIA, since all cases
include the 35-mile-per-gallon CAFE standard enacted in the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007, many of the most cost-effective vehicle
efficiency options are adopted in all cases, including the Reference Case. EIA
projects energy use by freight rail to decline 18 percent due to reduced volumes
of coal shipments, because of the shift away from coal-fired power plants. 137
EIA analysis does not analyze the additional ACESA provisions aimed at
stimulating further advances in vehicle fuel efficiency and a more rapid
penetration of vehicles that rely at least partially on electricity. If these
additional provisions are successful, larger reductions in transportation sector
emissions would be expected.
The EIA analysis did not include results for 2050, but these would be greater as
allowance prices would increase over time, and responses to earlier price
increases also are fully phased in.
The EIA analysis showed that between 80 and 88 percent of the energy-related
CO2 reductions in 2030 would come from the electricity generation sector of the
economy, largely from reductions in coal usage. Figure 4.1 below shows
estimated GHG emissions by sector.
137 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (2009). Energy
Market and Economic Impacts of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of
2009. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hr2454/index.html.
The