Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2
recovers only a portion of its operating expenses through ticket revenue (48 percent in
2007). 27 The combined Federal and State subsidy needed to operate the entire system is
very high: in 2001, Amtrak estimated that it would need about $16 billion (in 2000 dollars)
in Federal capital support from 2001 to 2020 just to maintain current operating levels of
service (GAO 2002).
Expanding intercity passenger services will require significant additional funding. The
National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission intercity
passenger rail vision includes a recommendation for the creation of an Intercity Passenger
Rail Program. To implement the national and regional corridor vision, the Passenger Rail
Working Group of the Commission recommends initial funding of $5 billion annually for
intercity passenger rail, including Amtrak funding and grants to States. This
recommendation is 3.9 times more than Federal funding support for Amtrak in 2007. The
total capital cost estimate for maintaining and expanding the national intercity passenger
rail network between 2008 and 2050 is $357.2 billion in 2007 dollars, an annualized cost of
$8.1 billion (Commission 2007b). This results in an average capital cost through 2050 of
$0.20 per passenger-mile.
The Moving Cooler study estimated the cost-effectiveness of expanding intercity rail,
considering capital and operating costs only, to range from $420 per tonne CO2e for the
base investment scenario identified in the Commission report to $1,500 per tonne CO2e for
a passenger-mile growth scenario 20 percent beyond the baseline, considering total costs
and GHG benefits over the 2010 to 2050 period. These costs, however, may be offset by
reductions in personal vehicle operating costs; including these savings, cost-effectiveness
ranges from -$600 per ton CO2e for the base investment scenario identified in the
Commission report to +$360 per ton CO2e for the highest passenger-mile growth scenario.
Additional costs to implement high-speed rail in 12 corridors result in high-speed rail costeffectiveness
of $1,000 to $1,400 per ton CO2e considering capital and operating costs only;
or $700 to $1,000 per ton CO2e including personal vehicle operating cost savings
(Cambridge Systematics, 2009). 28
Cost-effectiveness estimates for intercity bus service are difficult to develop due to the lack
of a formal process for reporting passenger-mile, cost, and revenue data by intercity bus
operators. According to data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
(FMCSA, 2001), intercity bus services carried 32.2 million passengers in 2001 with total
operating expenses of $1.04 billion, resulting in an operating cost of $32 per passenger.
27 This is based on ticket revenues of $1.52 billion versus total expenses of $3.18 billion (NRPC 2008).
28 The high-speed rail costs are estimated based on an average capital cost of $4.08 per passenger
mile, and annual operating costs at 2.5 percent of total capital costs. The $4.08 figure is the
weighted average capital cost per passenger mile for three high speed rail corridors with
environmental documentation and cost estimates: California (California High Speed Rail
Authority, 2009), Midwest (Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc., 2004), and
Southeast (Georgia Rail Consultants, 2004; Georgia Rail Passenger Authority, 2004). The
California system would be on new right-of-way while the Midwest and Southeast systems would
be upgrades to existing rights-of-way.
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