Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

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Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2 Bandivadekar et al (2008) calculates an incremental FCV cost of $5,300 in 2035, which is assumed for this assessment. FCV costs are likely to remain high relative to conventional vehicles for some time, but their costs are expected to decrease as market penetration progresses. Incremental costs for light-duty hydrogen fuel cells have been estimated to be approximately 10 times that of a conventional gasoline engine (Yacobucci, 2005), or about $25,000. 33 Another important consideration for FCVs to be competitive is long-term durability, so while costs are being reduced, fuel cell life cannot be compromised. DOE’s target is 5,000 hours, which is equivalent to 150,000 miles on a conventional vehicle. Although laboratory testing has achieved 7,300 hours on a small scale, independent road testing of 140 FCVs has achieved a 2,000 hour life thus far, at which point there is a 10 percent degradation of fuel cell performance (Wipke et al., 2009). 2-58 However, costs have been decreasing rapidly as fuel cell developers and component suppliers have lowered the amount of platinum required and increase power density. A more than 70 percent reduction in fuel cell costs was reported between 2002 and 2008 (U.S. DOE, 2008e). A recent independent study of DOE’s cost analysis methodology determined that a range of $60/kW to $80/kW is a valid estimate of the potential manufactured cost for an 80 kW fuel cell system, based on 2008 technology extrapolated to a volume of 500,000 systems per year (NREL, 2009c). In general, cost estimates do not account for any potential maintenance savings, which could be substantial with FCVs due to the greatly reduced number of moving parts. Bandivadekar et al. (2008) calculates an incremental FCV cost of $5,300 in 2035, which is assumed for this assessment, although it is acknowledged that higher volume production would lower the increment. If mass-produced, HICE vehicles could serve as a lower cost technology (compared to fuel cell vehicles) to introduce the public to hydrogen, while expanding the demand for hydrogen and its refueling infrastructure systems. The capital cost of a HICE vehicle is expected to be just 25 percent that of a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (CEPA, 2005). HFCV Costs and Cost-Effectiveness Ranges Calculating the cost-effectiveness of HFCVs in reducing GHG emissions is complicated given the number of assumptions needed for such an analysis. Table 2.11 summarizes the per vehicle incremental costs, fuel cost/savings, net present value of total cost/savings, average GHG reductions, and associated cost-effectiveness ranges for HFCVs for the timeframes of interest. Key to the calculated cost-effectiveness ranges are that the projected cost reductions in both the cost of an HFCV and hydrogen production/delivery are achieved. As discussed later, there is a significant learning curve to reach economies of scale, which will require investment in infrastructure and fuel cell development in the 33 Typical gasoline engine costs are reported between $2,000 and $3,000 (Yacobucci, 2007).
Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2 short to mid-term. The general consensus is that, at least in the near term, HFCVs will not be cost-effective. Table 2.11 HFCV per Vehicle Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Ranges by Time Period Incremental Vehicle Fuel Savings/ NPV Cost/ Average GHG Reduction Dollars/Tonne Dollars Cost NPVa Savings Tonnes/Year Calculated Literature 2020 $10,000 -$3,500 to $4,400 $6,500 to $14,400 2.7 $151 to $333 N/A 2030 to 2050 $1,500 to $5,300 -$11,900 to -$8,300 -$10,300 to -$3,000 3.3 -$199 to -$57 -$194 to $275 a Using pretax price projections for 2010 (near-term) and 2030 (long-term) – $3.00 to $7.00 and $2.10 to $4.50 relative to AEO projections for gasoline of $1.75 and $3.43, respectively. To put the results of Table 2.11 in context, other cost-effectiveness values found in the literature are reported here. For example, Bandivadekar et al. (2008) estimates a costeffectiveness between $132 and $163 per tonne CO2e in 2035, assuming a gasoline price of $2.50 per gallon. However, net cost savings are projected at $5 per gallon in this same study, resulting in cost-effectiveness estimates between -$161 and -$194 per tonne. Keith and Farrell (2003) calculated a cost-effectiveness value of $275 per tonne CO2e for longterm HFCVs. However, that study also estimates that the cost-effectiveness could improve by a factor of 10 with successful development and application of CCS technologies associated with electricity production. Lastly, Fulton (2004) estimated the costeffectiveness in the range of $200 to $800 per tonne CO2e in 2030 with the caveat that this calculation will depend on the price of producing hydrogen through low-carbon pathways. Cobenefits HFCVs emit no pollutants at the point of service, with life-cycle emissions resulting exclusively from fuel production and transport. Atmospheric emissions from HFCVs are vastly different depending on the production pathway and feedstock. Table 2.12 shows GREET model estimates of life-cycle emissions for gaseous and liquid hydrogen production for two selected pathways: distributed natural gas reforming and centralized nuclear plant production. The life-cycle analysis modeling estimates the emissions of VOC, CO, and NOx to be less compared to conventional gasoline vehicles. Although PM10 increases for gaseous H2, the amount of these pollutants generated is still very small. 2-59
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Acknowledgments Transportation's Ro
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Table of Contents Transportation's
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List of Figures Transportation's Ro
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Transportation's Role in Reducing U
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1.0 Introduction Transportation's R
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Induced Travel Demand Transportatio
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3.11 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Transporta
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Table 3.5 Findings by Strategy: Sys
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Strategy Name Travel Activity Commu
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6.0 Conclusion Transportation's Rol
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Printed on paper containing recycle
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Transportation’s Role in Reducing
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1.0 Introduction Transportation’s
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2.0 Low-Carbon Fuels Table of Conte
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List of Tables Transportation’s R
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� 2.1 Summary Overview of Low-Car
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Transportations Role in Reducing U.
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Component Shares in Total Price Tra
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