Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportations Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2
Magnitude and Timing of GHG Reductions
Per-Vehicle Benefits
Additional advances are assumed for HEV fuel economy over time, associated with
further battery and other technology improvements. The AEO Reference case assumes
HEV fuel economy improvement will increase from 31.2 mpg in 2010 to 38.6 in 2030.
Independent studies estimate current HEV mpg reductions between 17 and 60 percent,
and future year HEV fuel economy levels between 26 and 54 percent in the medium to
long term (Jones, 2008; Lutsey, 2008; McKinsey, 2009; Bandivadekar et al., 2008; IPCC,
2007; Fulton and Cazzola, 2008). The percentage reduction ranges were applied to AEO
base fuel economy estimates to obtain possible mpg ranges for HEVs. These figures are
summarized in Table 3.2N. Although broader in range, the 2010 range is fully inclusive of
the CAFE NPRM estimates of 25 to 40 percent for HEVs relative to a 2008 conventional
vehicle(NHTSA, 2008b). 20
Table 3.2H HEV Fuel Economy and Consumption Improvement
Potential
3-42
Conventional Vehicle Scenario MPG
Fuel Consumption
Reduction Range
MPG (AEO Base) Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum
2010 21.8 26.2 53.9 17% 60%
2030+ 28.2 38.3 60.8 26% 54%
Cost-Effectiveness
Gasoline HEVs currently carry a cost premium over comparable conventional vehicles.
Findings from the literature suggest incremental costs between $3,700 and $5,700 in the
near term, consistent with the CAFE NPRM estimates across two-mode and power-split
HEVs 21
(NHTSA, 2008b). Incremental costs are expected to fall somewhat in the medium
to long term to $2,300 and $4,100 per LDV due to further advances in battery technology,
and possibly further economies of scale and technological learning (Bandivadekar et al.,
2008; Lutsey, 2008; McKinsey, 2009; IPCC, 2007; Fulton and Cazzola, 2008).
This evaluation indicates that HEVs offer the largest potential GHG reductions on a pervehicle
basis short of plug-in HEVs (see Section 3.6), and appear to be generally cost-
20 Range across two-mode and power-split hybrids.
21 Comparable diesel HEV premiums are estimated to be somewhat higher in an EPA analysis,
between $4,100 and $5,900 in the near term (EPA, 2005).