Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

� 3.7 Aircraft Technologies
Internationally there are approximately
20,000 commercial aircraft in operation,
of which 12 percent are involved in
cargo operations (U.S. DOT, 2008;
SmartWay, 2009) and the remainder in
primarily passenger operations.
(Passenger aircraft also often carry
cargo.) In the U.S., the commercial air
carrier fleet accounts for 7,000 aircraft of
which 1,300 (19 percent) are dedicated to
freight shipments (U.S. DOT, 2009;
SmartWay, 2009). With this large fleet
involved in diverse freight and
passenger activities, there are a variety
of factors that the introduction of new
technologies. Some factors include
stringent safety standards, aircraft
performace demands, extremely high
costs of transitioning to newer
generation aircraft fleets, and tradeoffs
among environmental performance
properties such that reducing one
environmental impact may increase
another.
Transportations Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2
Aircraft Technologies
Per Aircraft GHG Reduction:
• Advanced engine technologies: 10 – 30%
• Conventional airframe / wing retrofit: 1.6 – 10%
• Blended wing body design: 20 – 40%
Fleet-wide GHG Reduction:
• Annual reduction of 1.4%-2.3% during 2015-2035
with 2015 as the base year.
Confidence in Estimates: Moderate
• Some technologies demonstrated; feasibility of
others not yet determined
Key Cobenefits and Impacts: Unknown
Feasibility: Moderate
• Requires long-term commitment and considerable
investment for some technologies
• Blended wing design requires airport
infrastructure changes
Key Policy Options:
• R&D for advanced technologies
• Demonstration programs / partnerships
• Financial or regulatory incentives to accelerate new
technologies
Incentives are important because costs
for developing new large commercial aircraft can be restrictively burdensome (ADL,
2000). For example, Airbus spent $15 billion to develop the new A380 aircraft which
currently is selling for approximately $330 million, at which price Airbus will need to sell
420 aircraft to break even (Babka, 2006). Given the expense of large commercial aircraft
there are economic drivers to keep a given model in service for as long as profitable (ADL,
2000). For example, the Boeing 747 was initially constructed in 1970 and while there have
been significant improvements in performance with each subsequent version of the B747,
several of the earliest models are still operating (SmartWay, 2009), such that the average
age of the Boeing B747 fleet is approximately 25 years (U.S. DOT, 2009). This means that
technology turnover may operate on a longer timeframe than fleet turnover, further
slowing the introduction of new technology.
Contrasting the economics of aircraft manufacture, aircraft fuel consumption typically
represents 20 to 30 percent of an airline’s direct operating costs (ICAO, 2006). Given the
significance of aviation fuel costs, the industry has historically been aggressive in
pursuing improvements to aircraft engine and airframe design that result in a reduction in
fuel consumption and emissions. Commercial aircraft sold today are about 70 percent
more fuel efficient per passenger-mile traveled than 40 years ago (ADI, 2007; ICAO, 2006,
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