Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

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Magnitude and Timing of GHG Reductions Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2 Reducing travel delay has the potential to reduce fuel consumption by reducing idling and inefficient low-speed and stop-and-go operation. 8 Congestion relief strategies also result in some amount of induced travel demand. Induced travel generates GHG emissions through additional VMT; this additional traffic also reduces the initial improvements in travel speed, traffic flow, and energy consumption. The magnitude of induced demand associated with these measures is a source of considerable uncertainty, as is the impact of this traffic on travel speed and traffic flow. Relationships between delay reductions and fuel savings also are subject to some uncertainty. Analysis performed for the Moving Cooler study estimated GHG reductions in the year 2030 – without considering induced demand—on the order of 3–5 mmt CO2e from ramp metering, 5-7 mmt from incident management, 0-2 mmt from signal control management,
Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2 An alternative “bottom-up” approach to estimating GHG benefits from signal optimization can be developed based on a signal timing evaluation conducted in Portland, Oregon. This study estimated that approximately 50 metric tons of CO2 were saved each year per traffic signal retimed in the city, although the study did not account for induced demand effects. With approximately 3,300 traffic signals in the State, of which 70 percent could benefit from retiming, the potential Statewide CO2 savings would be 115,000 metric tons in one year (Peters, McCourt, and Hurtado, 2009). Further extrapolating these results to the entire United States, based on ITE’s estimate of 300,000 traffic signals, provides an estimated benefit of 11 mmt CO2e annually. This is somewhat higher than the top-down nationwide estimate for developed for Moving Cooler, which assumed phased implementation over time and a lower benefit per signal and accounted for induced demand. 12 Another important consideration is that the future effectiveness of traffic management strategies will depend upon vehicle technology. With hybrid and electric-drive vehicles, driving cycles have a much lesser impact on fuel consumption and emissions. For example, today’s hybrid-electric vehicles have urban fuel economy ratings that typically exceed highway fuel economy ratings. All of the benefits estimates cited above assume current vehicle technology, albeit with improved fuel economy under the baseline assumptions described in Appendix A of this report. As previously noted, State and local agencies are at varying stages of deploying traffic management technologies. Some technologies (such as signal coordination and incident management) are well-developed, and further widespread implementation could occur within the next 5 to 10 years if financial, institutional, and political barriers are overcome thereafter, for a total long-run elasticity of -0.8 (see Appendix A). An elasticity of -0.8 means that a 1 percent decrease in total travel costs will result in a 0.8 percent increase in VMT. 11 The 10 mmt figure reflects an adjustment to the Moving Cooler study results to account for the fact that the induced demand effect may have been overstated compared to the estimates for capacity expansion and bottleneck relief strategies, which were based on different parameters. The Moving Cooler study estimated that 93 to 95 percent of the 2030 benefits of traffic management strategies would be offset by induced demand, but only 70 to 80 percent of capacity expansion and bottleneck relief strategies. The difference appears to be at least in part due to the fact that induced demand parameters for traffic operations strategies were not updated to be consistent with the final parameters used for capacity expansion and bottleneck relief strategies. Therefore, a range of induced demand effects is shown here, and the range of GHG benefits for the “with induced demand” case is adjusted to show a maximum benefit that reflects only a 70 percent reduction compared to the “without induced demand” case. 12 The Moving Cooler benefits for signal control management are based strictly on type of signal control, in increasing order of sophistication: pre-timed/actuated, central control, and real time traffic adaptive. Signals are assumed to be upgraded one level, with a coverage rate of up to 2,000 miles of roadway per year. Delay savings per signal without induced demand are estimated to be in the range of 5 to 12 percent, much smaller than the 15 to 40 percent reported in the Portland study. These smaller delay savings account for the fact that at high levels of delay (as the entire intersection approaches exceeds capacity), improved signal timing will not result in GHG benefits because delay is controlled by capacity, rather than signal timing. 4-22
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Acknowledgments Transportation's Ro
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Table of Contents Transportation's
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List of Figures Transportation's Ro
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Transportation's Role in Reducing U
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1.0 Introduction Transportation's R
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Induced Travel Demand Transportatio
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3.11 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Transporta
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Table 3.5 Findings by Strategy: Sys
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Strategy Name Travel Activity Commu
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6.0 Conclusion Transportation's Rol
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Printed on paper containing recycle
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Transportation’s Role in Reducing
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1.0 Introduction Transportation’s
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2.0 Low-Carbon Fuels Table of Conte
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List of Tables Transportation’s R
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� 2.1 Summary Overview of Low-Car
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Effects on Infrastructure Funding T
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Tax and tariff policy also can affe
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In 2006, approximately 43,000 mediu
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Market Penetration Transportation
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� 2.5 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LP
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Development of a Hydrogen Infrastru
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� 2.9 Electricity Overview Many o
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Feasibility Transportation’s Role
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� 2.10 References Transportation
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Transportations Role in Reducing U.
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Component Shares in Total Price Tra
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