Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportations Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2
Table 3.2A Estimated Time Lag for Major Market Share Penetration for
Selected Technologies
High-Speed
Fuel Cell Hybrid
Gasoline Direct Diesel with
with On-Board
Implementation
Injection Particulate Trap, Gasoline Engine/Battery-Motor Hydrogen
Stage Turbocharged NOx Catalyst Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid a Storage
Market Competitive
Vehicle
Penetration Across New
Vehicle Production
~2-3 years ~ 3 years ~ 3 years ~ 8-10 years ~12-15 years
~10 years ~15 years ~15 years ~15 years ~20-25 years
Major Fleet Penetration ~10 years ~10-15 years ~10-15 years ~15 years ~20 years
Total Time Required ~20 years ~25 years ~25-30 years ~30-35 years ~50 years
Source: Bandivadekar et al., (2008), adapted from Schafer et al., 2006.
a The time lag for PHEVs with different electric mode ranges could be significantly different. For example, lower
electric range PHEVs with smaller batteries (and therefore lower incremental costs) might enter the market more
quickly than those with larger batteries, if consumer acceptance generates adequate demand.
For many technology and fuel options considered in this report, most or all of the
incremental vehicle costs may be recovered through subsequent fuel savings. However,
the payback period may be lengthy (e.g., over 10 years for some of these measures) (U.S.
EPA, 2005). As LDVs are often resold multiple times over their useful life, a vehicle
purchaser may not obtain payback during their limited ownership period. 9 Accordingly,
additional incentives may be required to promote market penetration of these
technologies, even if the net present value of the technology option is positive over its
lifetime. 10
The GHG reduction technologies being evaluated for the LDV market fall into three broad
categories: hybrid power systems, fuel cells, and other advanced design features.
Technologies from one category can have corresponding technologies in another category
that, by their nature, have increased benefit potential when employed together. As noted
above, fuel cell technologies are discussed separately in Section 2.0.
9 According to industry estimates, payback periods of more than 3 to 4 years are not adequate in
themselves to drive the market for new technologies (U.S. EPA, 2005).
10 This conclusion depends on the extent to which vehicle resale prices incorporate the value of
future fuel savings (U.S. EPA, 2005).
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