Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2
For this assessment distributed natural gas reformation for gaseous hydrogen production is
assumed for the medium-term case (with a 40 to 55 percent GHG reduction), while a generic
“advanced pathway” case with a 79 to 84 percent GHG reduction is assumed for the long
term. 30 Impacts in terms of gasoline saved and GHG reductions are shown in Table 2.9.
Table 2.9 Maximum Potential HFCV Penetration and Benefits by Time
Period
Incremental
Market
Penetration
Incremental
Number of
HFCVs
Gasoline Saved –
Mgal/Year b
GHG Reduction
(mmt CO2e /yr)
(Percent) a (Millions) Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum
Medium-Term (2030) 18% 60 9,100 13,000 52 74
Long-Term (2050) 60% 200 43,200 52,800 388 474
a Incremental to AEO Reference Case – maximum value found in literature.
b # vehicles x AEO base gal/mi x 11,500 mi/yr (LDV avg.) x fuel consumption improvement.
Cost-Effectiveness
The cost-effectiveness of HFCVs depends upon both the cost of hydrogen and the
incremental cost of vehicle, including the fuel cell and storage components.
Hydrogen Cost
The price of hydrogen transportation fuel is a function of many factors, including the cost
of the feedstock, the maturity, and efficiency of the production technology and distribution
costs. It is generally accepted that the price of hydrogen fuel will be higher than petroleum
fuel on a gge basis in the earliest years of vehicle deployment. However, hydrogen fuel
costs will ultimately need to be roughly equivalent to gasoline costs on a per mile traveled
basis in order to obtain consumer acceptance without subsidies. Therefore DOE is
targeting the cost of hydrogen in 2015 between $2 and $3 per gge as delivered to the pump
30 In the range of eighty percent is broadly representative of several centralized gaseous hydrogen
production pathways including nuclear/renewable electrolysis, coal with CCS, and biomass, as
shown in Figure 2.3.
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