Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2
Bandivadekar et al (2008) calculates an incremental FCV cost of $5,300 in 2035, which is
assumed for this assessment.
FCV costs are likely to remain high relative to conventional vehicles for some time, but
their costs are expected to decrease as market penetration progresses. Incremental costs
for light-duty hydrogen fuel cells have been estimated to be approximately 10 times that of
a conventional gasoline engine (Yacobucci, 2005), or about $25,000. 33
Another important consideration for FCVs to be competitive is long-term durability, so
while costs are being reduced, fuel cell life cannot be compromised. DOE’s target is 5,000
hours, which is equivalent to 150,000 miles on a conventional vehicle. Although
laboratory testing has achieved 7,300 hours on a small scale, independent road testing of
140 FCVs has achieved a 2,000 hour life thus far, at which point there is a 10 percent
degradation of fuel cell performance (Wipke et al., 2009).
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However, costs have
been decreasing rapidly as fuel cell developers and component suppliers have lowered the
amount of platinum required and increase power density. A more than 70 percent
reduction in fuel cell costs was reported between 2002 and 2008 (U.S. DOE, 2008e). A
recent independent study of DOE’s cost analysis methodology determined that a range of
$60/kW to $80/kW is a valid estimate of the potential manufactured cost for an 80 kW fuel
cell system, based on 2008 technology extrapolated to a volume of 500,000 systems per
year (NREL, 2009c). In general, cost estimates do not account for any potential
maintenance savings, which could be substantial with FCVs due to the greatly reduced
number of moving parts. Bandivadekar et al. (2008) calculates an incremental FCV cost of
$5,300 in 2035, which is assumed for this assessment, although it is acknowledged that
higher volume production would lower the increment.
If mass-produced, HICE vehicles could serve as a lower cost technology (compared to fuel
cell vehicles) to introduce the public to hydrogen, while expanding the demand for
hydrogen and its refueling infrastructure systems. The capital cost of a HICE vehicle is
expected to be just 25 percent that of a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (CEPA, 2005).
HFCV Costs and Cost-Effectiveness Ranges
Calculating the cost-effectiveness of HFCVs in reducing GHG emissions is complicated
given the number of assumptions needed for such an analysis. Table 2.11 summarizes the
per vehicle incremental costs, fuel cost/savings, net present value of total cost/savings,
average GHG reductions, and associated cost-effectiveness ranges for HFCVs for the
timeframes of interest. Key to the calculated cost-effectiveness ranges are that the
projected cost reductions in both the cost of an HFCV and hydrogen production/delivery
are achieved. As discussed later, there is a significant learning curve to reach economies of
scale, which will require investment in infrastructure and fuel cell development in the
33 Typical gasoline engine costs are reported between $2,000 and $3,000 (Yacobucci, 2007).