Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 1
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Table 3.1 Potential Petroleum Savings in 2030 107
Petroleum Savings (billions of gallons of
gasoline and diesel)
Strategy Family
Low High
Price Carbon 6.3 10.4
Improve Transportation On-road 4.6 8.0
System Efficiency
Air, Rail, Marine 1.8 5.1
Reduce Carbon-Intensive Travel Activity 12.1 40.3
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis.
Note: Vehicle efficiency and low carbon fuels strategies are not included here because of ongoing
rulemakings.
NHTSA, in its preliminary rulemaking for revised CAFE standards as required
by the Energy Independence and Security Act, reviews literature on the
economic costs of dependence on foreign oil, and therefore the benefit of fuel
savings resulting from increased CAFE standards. NHTSA estimates the benefits
related to oil supply disruptions and monopsony costs (higher prices for
petroleum products resulting from the effect of U.S. oil import demand on the
world oil price) to range from about $0.108 to $0.539 per gallon saved, with a best
estimate of $0.298 per gallon. These estimates do not include reduced outlays for
military operations, as NHTSA concludes that fuel efficiency standards will not
materially affect these costs. 108
As vehicle fuel efficiency and low-carbon fuel strategies are implemented,
transportation continues to fulfill the same function (moving people and goods)
with little impact on mobility or accessibility. In contrast, most system efficiency
strategies have significant mobility cobenefits, especially travel time savings and
107 This table is based on rough estimates of fuel savings for individual strategies. For all
strategies except low-carbon fuels, these estimates were derived by back-calculating
fuel savings based on the GHG reductions from the strategy, considering the carbon
content of gasoline, diesel, and/or jet fuel as appropriate for the strategy. Conversion
factors of 9.16, 10.56, and 9.95 kg CO2e per gallon were used respectively for gasoline,
diesel, and jet fuel reflecting the carbon content of the fuel (8.81, 10.15 ,and 9.57
kg/gallon) inflated by 4 percent to account for non-CO2 GHG emissions. The gasoline
conversion factor was used for strategies affecting light-duty vehicle travel, the diesel
factor for strategies affecting heavy-duty, rail, and marine travel, and the jet fuel factor
for strategies affecting aviation. For strategies affecting all highway travel, factors were
weighted 69 percent gasoline and 31 percent diesel, based on the fraction of these
vehicles used in on-road vehicles as estimated from FHWA’s Highway Statistics. .
108 National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (2009). Corporate Average Fuel
Economy for MY 2012-2016 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks: Preliminary Regulatory Impact
Analysis. Figures are in 2007 U.S. dollars.