Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 1
Table 3.3 Findings by Strategy: Carbon Pricing and Low-Carbon Fuels
Effectiveness Cost Effec-
Percent GHG Reduction
Transportation
Sector Relevant Subsector(s)
Absolute GHG
Reduction (mmt
CO2e/year)
tiveness
($/tonne
CO2e)
Timing Net
Key Deployment
of Included
Strategy
Assumptions 2030 2050 Subsector 2030 2050 2030 2050 Benefits Costs
Economy-Wide Market-Based Strategies
Cap-and- Allowance price or tax of 2.6-8.5% n/a All 2.6-8.5% n/a 53-174 n/a Short- n/a
Trade / $30 to $50/ton CO2e in
Long
Carbon Tax 2030
Motor Fuel Equivalent to ~$0.20 to 2.4-23% n/a On-road 3.2-32% n/a 50-500 n/a Short- n/a
Taxes $2.40/gal
vehicles
Long
Low-Carbon Fuels
Ethanol Not analyzed
Biodiesel Not analyzed
Natural gas 2.5-5% of total U.S.
natural gas use diverted
to transportation; 15%
GHG reduction per
vehicle
Liquefied
petroleum
gas (LPG)
Synthetic
fuels
Two times current consumption
rates
Hydrogen 2030—18% LDV market
penetration, 40-55% GHG
reduction per vehicle
2050—60% LDV market
penetration, 79-84% GHG
reduction per vehicle
Electricity 2030—5% LDV market
penetration, 68-80% GHG
reduction per vehicle
2050—56% LDV market
penetration, 78-87% GHG
reduction per vehicle
Aviation Not analyzed
Fuels
0.3-0.6% LDV 0.6-1.2% 7-13 Short ($130)-
($50)
0.01% LDV 0.02-
0.03%
0.2-0.3 Short n/a
Not analyzed Mid-
Long
2.4-3.4% 18-22% LDV 4.8-6.8% 36-44% 52-74 390-470 Long ($194)-
$275
2.2-2.5% 26-30% LDV 4.3-5.1% 53-59% 47-55 570-640 Long ($90)-$343
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