Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...

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Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2 A different study for the U.S. Public Interest Research Group (USPIRG) concluded that transit reduced GHG emissions by nearly 26 mmt CO2e in 2006. This study used slightly different assumptions than the APTA study, including accounting for lower fuel economy of automobile trips removed during congested periods, and additional fuel savings from reduced highway congestion. The study also accounted for “leveraged” benefits from more compact land use patterns (Baxandall, Dutzkik, and Hoen, 2008). For any data using national average GHG emissions by mode or total GHG reductions, the caveat must be included that the results are heavily influenced by the most heavily used and productive services in a few major cities, such as Boston, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C. For example, the USPIRG study found that nearly half of the GHG reductions from transit—11.8 mmt CO2e—were from New York State alone, with another 10.4 mmt from six other States; and that 26 States saw reductions of less than 0.01 tonnes or even slight increases in GHG from their transit services. It is not clear whether future transit expansion will result in the same level of GHG reduction productivity. The net GHG effect of future improvements to transit will depend on factors including the amount of new ridership attracted from automobiles, number of passengers per transit vehicle, relative efficiency of transit vehicles and automobiles, and carbon content of fuels. Transit ridership growth will also depend on a variety of factors that are difficult to predict, such as fuel prices, economic growth, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and land use patterns. One recent study developed three possible scenarios for future ridership growth: a continued 2.4 percent increase; a 3.52 percent increase, which represents a doubling of transit ridership in 20 years, and would require aggressive strategies to grow ridership; and a target growth rate of 4.63 percent (TCRP, 2008). 17 Based on these three scenarios, the Moving Cooler study estimated future GHG reductions from additional transit investment. The study assumed that load factors would increase from 10.5 passengers per bus in 2006 to 12 passengers per bus in 2030. Savings were estimated separately for three different strategies: reduced fares; improvements to 18 headways and level of service; and expanded fixed-guideway services. The study also 17 The target growth rate assumes a variety of potential factors that could cause public transportation ridership to grow more rapidly, including higher energy prices, implementation of policies to promote development around public transportation services, increased concern for the impacts of climate change, and stronger emphasis on the relationships between land use and transportation. 18 Fare reductions range from 25 to 50 percent. For LOS improvements, signal prioritization, limited-stop service, and other enhancements are implemented to improve travel speeds by 10 to 30 percent. Increased service levels and fixed guideway expansion occur at a rate of 2.4 to 4.67 percent annually, consistent with ridership forecast scenarios; investments are assumed to be targeted in areas with at least 4,000 persons per square mile or that otherwise facilitate high passenger loads per vehicle revenue-mile. 5-37
Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 2 accounted for increasing efficiency of both automobiles and transit vehicles. 19 Table 5.4 shows the range of GHG reductions in 2030 and 2050 estimated for each strategy, with the range reflecting the least and most aggressive levels of implementation (Cambridge Systematics, 2009). Table 5.4 Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Transit Service Improvements Annual mmt CO2e Reduced Year 5-38 Fare Reductions Improved Headways and LOS Fixed Guideway Expansion Combined Measures 2030 0.5-1.9 1.0-2.1 3.7-14.1 5.7-18.1 2050 0.5-1.8 2.0-3.7 6.5-26.1 9.0-31.6 Source: Cambridge Systematics, 2009. The annual savings in 2030 are estimated at 6 to 18 mmt CO2e, respectively, for the three ridership growth scenarios described above. By 2050, benefits grow to 9 to 32 mmt CO2e annually. Figure 5.2 illustrates the growth in benefits over time, reflecting the continued expansion of transit services. 20 19 For buses, GHG emission factors are assumed to decline from 0.71 pounds GHG per passenger mile in 2006 to 0.35 pounds GHG per passenger mile in 2050, assuming the increased penetration of hybrid-electric, alternative fuels, and other advanced technologies. Commuter rail factors are assumed to decline from 0.36 to 0.19 pounds per passenger mile. For electric rail vehicles, CO2 emissions of per kilowatt-hour are estimated using EPA’s eGrid database of 1.185 pounds CO2/kwh in 2006, decreasing at 2.5 percent per year after 2015, which is based on an extrapolation of the rate of GHG reduction between 2010 and 2018 from targets set through the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in 10 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. The net effect is that heavy rail emissions decline from 0.28 pounds per passenger-mile in 2006 to 0.10 in 2050, and light rail from 0.40 in 2006 to 0.18 in 2050. (These factors also reflect modest increases in load factors.) Automobile fuel efficiency is projected to improve at somewhat faster rates than in the AEO Reference forecast—1.91 versus 1.61 percent annually. 20 The Moving Cooler results for transit strategies as well as for a number of other travel activity strategies (including land use, non-motorized travel, and employer trip reduction) consider induced demand effects, i.e., an offsetting increase in vehicle-travel as vehicles are removed from the roads and congestion is reduced. This effect reduces the estimated benefits of these strategies by about 14 percent, as discussed in Appendix A.
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Acknowledgments Transportation's Ro
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Table of Contents Transportation's
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List of Figures Transportation's Ro
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Transportation's Role in Reducing U
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1.0 Introduction Transportation's R
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Induced Travel Demand Transportatio
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3.11 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Transporta
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Table 3.5 Findings by Strategy: Sys
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Strategy Name Travel Activity Commu
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6.0 Conclusion Transportation's Rol
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Printed on paper containing recycle
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Transportation’s Role in Reducing
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1.0 Introduction Transportation’s
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2.0 Low-Carbon Fuels Table of Conte
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List of Tables Transportation’s R
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� 2.1 Summary Overview of Low-Car
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Effects on Infrastructure Funding T
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Tax and tariff policy also can affe
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In 2006, approximately 43,000 mediu
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Market Penetration Transportation
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� 2.5 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LP
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Development of a Hydrogen Infrastru
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� 2.9 Electricity Overview Many o
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Feasibility Transportation’s Role
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� 2.10 References Transportation
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Transportations Role in Reducing U.
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Component Shares in Total Price Tra
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