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Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

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FUTURE NEEDSThere have been three recent projections concerning electricity dem<strong>and</strong> in<strong>the</strong> <strong>Valdez</strong>-Glennallen service area. The earliest was produced by <strong>the</strong> Alaska<strong>Power</strong> Administration <strong>and</strong> subsequently appeared in a March 1979 report entitledUpper Susitna <strong>River</strong> Project <strong>Power</strong> Market Analysis. This report considers <strong>the</strong><strong>Copper</strong> Valley utility district <strong>for</strong> intertie with <strong>the</strong> proposed Susitnahydrelectric project. The <strong>for</strong>ecast provided by APA was made during a periodof unprecedented growth in <strong>the</strong> study area. Consequently it is <strong>the</strong> highest of<strong>the</strong> three load <strong>for</strong>ecasts, as will be illustrated. The second projection(chronologically) appears in <strong>the</strong> <strong>Power</strong> Cost Study 1979-1993 prepared <strong>for</strong> CVEAby Robert W. Re<strong>the</strong>r<strong>for</strong>d Associates, also in March of 1979. Contrary to <strong>the</strong>APA <strong>for</strong>ecast, this projection was <strong>for</strong>med during <strong>the</strong> post-pipeline wind-down<strong>and</strong> reflects <strong>the</strong> reduced expectations of that period. Like <strong>the</strong> APA analysis,it does not take into account <strong>the</strong> recently initiated ALPETCO refinery. Thethird <strong>and</strong> most recent load <strong>for</strong>ecast was also conducted by APA, <strong>and</strong> appears in<strong>the</strong>ir marketability analysis provided <strong>for</strong> this report. The relative positionof APA's 1980 projection can be seen in <strong>the</strong> following comparative tables:Table 3VALDEZ-GLENNALLEN AREA UTILITY FORECASTSUpper Susitna Project <strong>Power</strong> Market AnalysisEnergy (gwh)Peak Dem<strong>and</strong>(MW)CVEA lLCVEA lLYear Glenna1len <strong>Valdez</strong> Total Glennallen1976 12.5 24.5 37.0 39.3 2/ 3. 11977 21.0 27.0 48.0 47.4 2/ 4.21978 22. 1 27.2 49.3 43.8 2/ 4.41979 24.0 27.6 51.6 41.6 ]j 4.61980 45.9 27.9 73.8 7.3<strong>1981</strong> 48.5 30.5 79.0 7.71982 50.0 33.0 83.0 8. 11983 52.2 35.5 87.7 8.51984 55.0 38.2 93.2 9.01985 57.6 41.4 99.0 9.51986 60.0 45.0 105.0 10. 11987 63. 1 48.5 111. 6 10.61988 66.0 52.5 118.5 11. 11989 69. 1 56.8 125.9 11.71990 72.3 61.4 133.7 12.41991 75.0 66.4 141.4 13.0<strong>Valdez</strong>6.05.95.85.85.86.36.87.48.08.69.310. 110.911.812.813.81995 1802000 2402025 1,0251/ <strong>Copper</strong> Valley Electric Association Forecast from 1976 REA <strong>Power</strong>Requirements Study.2/ Historical valuesB-8

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