Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

CHAPTER VIILOAD/RESOURCE ANALYSISThis chapter analyzes three plans that relate feasible power supplyalternatives to the Valdez/Glennallen load forecasts. The discussionaddresses installed capacity and energy separately. A Valdez-Glennallentransmission is assumed so total CVEA loads are used.Chapter VI indicated three viable alternatives for consideration:Allison Creek; pressure reducing turbines (PRT) in the Alyeska pipeline;and an interconnection with Railbelt power sources. An all thermal casehas been added for comparison. The following plans are illustrated onFigures VII-1 through VII-5. Bases for the curves are Tables VII-1 andVII-2. Table VII-3 combines plans 1 and 2.Figure NumberPage NumberPlan 1 Allison Creek alternative VII-1 and VII-3 34 and 36Plan 2 Pipeline PRT alternative VII-1 and VII-4 34 and 37Plan 3 Continuing thermal generation VII-2 and VII-S 35 and 38A Railbelt interconnection has not been separately illustrated. It canfit in the cross hatched areas in the diagrams or displace AllisonCreek.Installed CapacityFigures VII-l and VII-2 illustrate how the installed capacity forecastcan be supplied. The analysis assumes that much of the existing thermalgeneration of both Valdez and Glennallen will be put in standby statuswhen Solomon Gulch comes on line.The diagrams show clearly the need for capacity in addition to SolomonGulch. Further, they show that more than one of the three alternativesis required before 1990 (see Figure VII-I).Allison Creek as part of an interconnected system could be fully utilizedto supply load demand plus reserves by 1985. If diesels are used forreserves, then Allison Creek full utilization would come in 1991 (seeFigure VII-l and Table VII-I). From a capacity viewpoint, PRT's havethe same schedule.Figure VII-2 indicates existing generators, if not displaced by hydro,will not be adequate after 1981. Retirement schedules for the existingdiesels and gas turbine are based on an assumed 20 to 2S-year life.Solomon Gulch plus existing capacity will not be adequate after 1989.29