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Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

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It was found that <strong>the</strong>re are considerable uncertainties in making load<strong>for</strong>ecasts <strong>for</strong> this area. For example, <strong>the</strong>re are many questions onprecise timing <strong>and</strong> numbers of jobs associated with <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>and</strong>operation of <strong>the</strong> State's Alaska Liquid Petroleum Company Refinery(ALPETCO) scheduled <strong>for</strong> <strong>Valdez</strong>. Because of such contingencies, both<strong>Valdez</strong> <strong>and</strong> Glennallen have potential <strong>for</strong> growth appreciably differentthan <strong>the</strong> assumed <strong>for</strong>ecast. The basic <strong>for</strong>ecast adopted was presented in<strong>the</strong> CVEA <strong>Power</strong> Cost Study of January 1980. That <strong>for</strong>ecast <strong>the</strong>n wasextrapolated to year 2000 <strong>and</strong> adjustments made to reflect conservation<strong>and</strong> estimated additional loads during ALPETCO construction <strong>and</strong> operation.Future power requirements are estimated as follows:<strong>Valdez</strong>EnerSil (GWH) Dem<strong>and</strong> (MW) caj2acityl/ (MW)Historical 1978 23.4 4.8 10.11979 23.0 4.2 10.11980 26.5 5.4 7.21985 48.0 9.8 13.11990 57.0 11.7 15.61993 63.0 12.9 17.22000 76.0 15.2 20.3GlennallenEnerSil (GWH) Dem<strong>and</strong> (MW) CaEacityl/ (MW)Historical 1978 20.4 4.0 7.61979 18.5 3.5 7.61980 21.4 4.4 5.91985 29.5 5.8 7.71990 40.6 7.8 10.41993 49.2 9.2 12.32000 70.0 14.0 18.71./ Forecasted capacity is computed from peak dem<strong>and</strong> + 75% (assumes25 % reserves).Various alternative power supply alternatives were considered as followonprojects after Solomon Gulch:1. Allison Creek2. Pressure reducing turbines (PRT's) in Alyeska Pipeline3. Interconnection of CVEA system with Railbelt power supplies4. Use of diesel generationLoad/resource <strong>and</strong> cost analysis were per<strong>for</strong>med to compare <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecastedloads with <strong>the</strong> alternatives listed above. The load/resource resultsindicated:4

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