Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

CHAPTER VFUTURE POWER AND ENERGY ASSUMPTIONS AND REQUIREMENTSEnergy and Peak Demand ForecastsAny forecasts in the Valdez/Glennallen area have a high measure ofuncertainty, not only from lack of a stable historic base but also fromvagueness of the future. Future contingencies include the ALPETCOpetrochemical plant proposal, expansion of Valdez port activities, somepetroleum exploration activity near Glennallen, and possible electricalinterconnection to the Railbelt area.Periodically, Copper Valley Electric Association (CVEA), in conjunctionwith the Rural Electric Administration (REA), commissions a power requirementsor power cost study. The last one available was datedJanuary 1980 and made load estimates for the 1980 to 1993 period. Ithas been adapted for this study as shown in Table V-I, which listsenergy and peak demand by year for Valdez, Glennallen, and the totalCVEA area. Growth rates and load factors are also shown.The CVEA forecast does not include the proposed ALPETCO petrochemicalfacility near Valdez nor adjustment for conservation. Therefore, theestimates have been altered by Alaska Power Administration to reflectthese contingencies. The Valdez forecast was derived by first decreasingthe CVEA 6-percent.average annual growth rate in five-year incrementsthen adding 17 GWh for 1982 peak year construction and 12 GWh per yearfor ALPETCO operation. The following average annual growth rates wereapplied to the CVEA base 1980 energy:1980-1985 6%1985-1990 5%1995-2000 3%The 17 GWH and 12 GWh were developed from the 1970 to 1978 net generationper employee statistics and estimated numbers of employees. During theoil terminal construction in Valdez, CVEA supplied 5 to 6 MWh peremployee. The other years these values were 10 to 14 MWh. The EnvironmentalProtection Agency Environmental Impact Statement of December 1979indicated almost 2,800 peak construction employees and about 1,200operational employees. (6 MWh/employees x 2,800 employees = 17 GWh;10 MWh/employees x 1,200 employees = 12 GWh).The Glennallen forecast comes directly from the CVEA study. It wasassumed growth factors and conservation would cancel any need forrevision. Peak"loads can be determined by using the following loadfactors from the CVEA study:GlennallenValdezTotal1980-19931993-200057.8%57.1%55.8%57.1%56.7%57.1%17