Electrical Power for Valdez and the Copper River Basin-1981

Figure V-I pictures the forecast of the total CVEA area. It also showsthe 1980 CVEA power cost study load growth, the forecast from the CVEA1976 Power Requirements Study, and a projection that averages theselatter two. The 1976 forecast was presented in the March 1979 SusitnaPower Market Study and the Y~rch 1979 AWSU S.C. Alaska Level B Phase ITechnical Memorandum (see bibliography items 5 and 6). The projectedaverage was used as an interim forecast by the Corps of Engineers intheir Allison Creek draft report. It could be cons~dered a high rangeforecast for this power market report.In addition to these utility forecasts, self-supplied industries shouldbe mentioned. The only ones considered were the oil pipeline terminaland the proposed ALPETCO project. The terminal commenced operation in1977 with a 37.5 MW oil-fired steamplant, about four times the totalCVEA 1977 peak load. The ALPETCO installation may have up to 55 MWinstalled capacity as reported in a CVEA/REA Power Requirements Study ofMarch 1979.These industries, with their large loads compared to the utility, wereconsidered unlikely to be utility supplied. Therefore, the forecast didnot combine utility and industry.Installed Capacity Forecast and Future NeedsIn'stalled capacity is equal to peak load plus system reserves. The 1979Susitna Power market analysis assumed a 20 percent reserv,e in urbanareas and 25 percent in towns and rural areas. This study assumes thatpeak load is 75 percent of installed capacity.Table V-2 expands the peak load forecast by dividing each value by 0.75.Existing installed capacity is listed also for each year, decreasingaccording to an assumed retirement schedule. Solomon Gulch capacity(12 MW) shows for Valdez in accordance with its assumed on-line date of1981. An interconnection is assumed under "CVEA Total"; so Valdez andGlennallen capacity estimates and existing generation are totaled. Alast column adds Solomon Gulch to existing thermal capacity.Energy DistributionAssuming current energy use patterns will not change significantly inthe future, the annual energy forecast values divide into the followingmonthly distribution. This distribution is arranged in water yearorder, October 1 through September 30. The assumption of no significantchange in percentages is justified as long as the utility remains isolatedelectrically from a large industry. Expanding use of electric spaceheating in the residential and commercial sectors may modify the distributionsomewhat also.18