The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

linear regression analysis was made with degree of crisis as the independent variable and
number of expiations as the dependent variable which didn't yield any significant relation
(F(1,77)= 3.163, P=0.079). To be fair we could say that there is a trend. This trend may,
however, just as well be attributed to the dramatic effect. If for example we removed the
extreme observations from 218 and 217 in which the expiations play a central role for Livy in
evoking the fear caused by Hannibal in Italy, the F value drops dramatically to
F(1,75)=0.000, P=0.985, which is random. It does not therefore seem reasonable to conclude
that there is any causal relation between crisis and number of expiations except in 218 and
217. It seems that, in so far as it can be submitted to empirical tests, the predictions one
would expect of the functional thesis do not fit the empirical findings accurately.
Summary
This critical review has revealed review that all previous explanations of the existence of
divination in the Roman Republic have serious flaws. We saw that it was possible to
distinguish four theses that had been offered in previous research to explain Roman
divination. The historical thesis does not on closer inspection qualify as an explanation,
because it merely demonstrates a correlation between events without supplying any evidence
of a causal relation. The formalist thesis is based on a misreading of the sources. The fear
thesis likewise has problems with the empirical level since it does not agree well with the
predictions of the theory. The functional thesis has the same sort of problem as the historical
thesis because it reverts to a correlational account, where it is not possible to isolate the
causes and effects. In the only case where it was possible to test its predictions empirically, it
could not account for the results. It is therefore possible to conclude that all previous attempts
to explain the existence of divination in Roman republican times have failed.
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