The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

stipulated. Even within individual divination practices, differences in credibility value correlated
with the difference in direct prestige of the operator or interpreter. The indirect prestige largely
followed the direct prestige, but in cases where the direct prestige was the same, the indirect
prestige determined which practice had higher credibility value. We also found that Roman
divination had all possible different combinations of utility. The utility characteristics could
account for why a given divination practice was adopted in a given context. We also found that
all practices were explicitly conceptualized as communications with a counterintuitive agent.
All predictions of the theoretical model, with the exception of one, were seen to be in
accordance with expectations based on the theoretical model developed in the first part. It was
further shown how this model might throw some light on certain aspects of the historical
dynamics of the dissemination and survival of individual divination practices. This was done by
recourse to changes in only two factors: Credibility value and utility.
Finally, it was argued that four simple equations, specifying the relations between the factors
stipulated to be of importance in the theoretical model, could explain the dissemination and
survival of individual divination practices. First of all, we found that the credibility value of a
divination practice depended on ritualization, direct prestige and indirect prestige in descending
order of importance. The probability of dissemination of a practice was found to be inversely
proportional with the credibility value. This has to do with a correlation between credibility
value and actual value: divination practices with a high credibility value could only be afforded
by very few and vice versa. The probability that a divination practice would be adopted was
found to be predicted by the credibility value plus the utility of the practice in a context times the
frequency with which that context arises. If a divination practice is very useful in a given context
and that context suddenly arises more often the prediction is that the divination practice will
become more widespread all else being equal. The last equation stipulates that the probability
that a divination practice will survive depends on the credibility value plus the dissemination. A
divination practice may therefore survive through centuries even when it is not widely
disseminated if it has a high credibility value. Conversely if it has a low credibility value it may
likewise survive if it is widely disseminated. If, however, it has a low credibility value and is not
widely disseminated it is not probable that it will survive. The predictions of these four equations
were in accordance with what we could find in the sources for Roman divination practices. The
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