The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

History
Let us see how these observations can help us understand the historical dynamics. We only know
of a couple of divination practices that became extinct: The auspicium nuptiarum, auspicium
peremne, astrology, and some sortition oracles seem to have disappeared. They all had low
credibility value. Astrology however returned and came into prominence later, but that is a
different story involving the endorsement of the practice by the emperors, thus dramatically
increasing its credibility values. The survival of a divination practice therefore seems to depend
on the credibility value of the divination practice. The assumption that high credibility value
provided a divination practice with a higher probability of survival is consistent with the findings
here. We should, however, also notice that the practices that became extinct were also not
widespread. Many other practices that had low credibility value and were widespread did not
become extinct. In light of this we may assume that the dissemination of the practice is likewise
a factor in determining the resilience of it.
The divination practices that appear to have been widespread all have a low credibility value as
well. This is probably due to economic reasons. The actual value of the use of a divination
practice correlates with the credibility value. Since most people don’t have a lot of resources, the
costly practices, i.e. the ones with high credibility value, will not be as widespread.
Utility was also an important factor in determining the historical trajectory of a divination
practice. The utility of a practice does not tell us anything in itself as to whether it will be
adopted or not. It is only the utility in relation to a context. A practice is adopted because it is
useful in a situation. If the context arises often the practice will have a higher probability of
becoming widespread. We can see some instances where the utility of a practice in a given
context is the primary reason it was adopted. Four cases lend themselves to this interpretation.
1) The adoption of public sortition should be found in the utility of sortition in deciding between
several alternatives. After the expulsion of the kings the command of the armies were divided
between two equal magistrates or several military tribunes. Thus, a context arose where it was
necessary to choose between several discrete alternatives. In this context sortition had a high
utility because of its form.
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