The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

2) The auspicium ex tripudio is not seen as being as old as the other kinds of auspices. The
difference between auspicium ex tripudio and the other kinds of auspices is primarily that the
former can be operated by anyone and that it could be used privately for any purpose. During the
Roman expansion eventually more armies were deployed than could be commanded by the
consuls, therefore a context arose in which the auspicium ex tripudio was useful since it could be
used by anyone. It may also have been useful in other cases, such as making wills, in the military
context. In these contexts the traditional auspices could not have been used.
3) The use of the Sibylline Books, while enigmatic in its details, offers another glimpse of how
the utility accounts for its use. The Sibylline Books were used in contexts where the senate was
in doubt what to do, as in the case of severe crisis, or especially mysterious or frightening
prodigies. Through the details of the prophecies, most notably a specification of rituals to be
performed, a rich interpretation of the situation at hand was arrived at. None of the traditional
public forms could be used in this context because they were all either binary (auspices,
extispicy) or discrete (sortition). Therefore in the rare cases where the senate did not know what
to do a context arose in which the Sibylline Books were useful because of its form.
4) The last example shows that the auspicium ex tripudio, although more useful to non-consular
military commanders, still was constrained by the binary form. From around the turn of the 1 st
century BCE big military commanders like Sulla started to employ private Etruscan haruspices,
because their divination practice allowed, not only open, but also rich information to be
acquired. Often a context would lend itself where the commander would not know exactly what
to do, maybe several tactical possibilities were open. In this context the Etruscan form of
extispicy was more useful because it could give rich information. These four examples offer a
glimpse of how utility can account for the historical dynamics of divination practices.
It can therefore be seen that the overall historical tendencies of the different factors are
explained by the credibility value and utility. One could wonder why the cultural model and the
motivation do not figure here. The reason is that they are both constant as far as can be seen in
the period in question. There is no change in the basic cultural model of divination. Furthermore,
the motivation is constant because its basis, misfortune, was also constant.
184