The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

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information sought, F = the frequency that this context arises, S = Survival – probability that the practice will survive, A = Adoption of a new practice. Ad 1) This equation states that the credibility value of a divination practice is composed of three factors which have a different weight each (a, b and c). We don’t know the exact value of these factors, but we do know that ritualization is the most important. The second most important is direct prestige, and the least important is indirect prestige. Thus the weights of the three factors are a>b>c. Ritualization is a binary factor. Indirect prestige varies with the direct prestige and may be slightly higher or slightly lower. IP probably depends on R>0, but it is a different problem whether the IP remains a factor outside ritual divination. 183 The equation also predicts that the credibility value of an utterance which is not ritualized, that is when R=0, can be evaluated according to the normal human heuristic of prestige bias. This is because only DP remains. Ad 2) Equation 2 states that the probability that a practice will be disseminated is inversely proportional to the credibility value of the practice. The reason for this can be learned from a basic insight from economics. Divination is a service and as such economicly a commodity. Like all commodities it has a value. This value correlates with what we have here called credibility value. It should not be controversial that the more credible some information is (credibility value) the more valuable it is (actual value). The probability of dissemination correlates with demand. In economics this relation between value and demand of a commodity is expressed in, what has been termed, the demand curve. The basic prediction of the demand curve in economics is that ceteris paribus, high price of a commodity results in low demand and low price in high demand (Mulhearn & Vane 1999: 28-30). Likewise in divination we should expect high credibility value to result in low demand and low credibility value in high demand. It is however necessary to remember that this is a ceteris paribus claim, so other factors may result in a low credibility value practice not being widely disseminated, just like a cheap good does not necessarily result in high sales. It could also be argued that utility should be part of this equation 183 One could here imagine revelations or prophecy as positive examples, because the ultimate communicator is a god. For an interesting analysis of these implications see (Levy 2007) 186
as specified in equation 3, but it does not matter how useful a divination practice is, it will still follow the demand curve. Ad 3) This equation states that the probability that a practice will be adopted in a given context depends on the credibility value of the practice plus the utility of the practice in that context times the frequency that the context arises. We saw four examples of this in the history section above. Ad 4) This equation states that the probability that a practice will survive for a longer period of time depends on its credibility value and dissemination. Although the probability is C + D, we have to take in to account that C and D are related as specified in equation 2. The probability that a practice will survive can be sketched as in figure 9.2. below: Dissemination Low Medium High Credibility value Figure 9.2. Probability of survival of a divination practice The reason why the lines decline towards the right is because they denote the probable cut off determined by equation 2). This follows from the demand curve that similarly declines towards the right (Mulhearn & Vane 1999: 28): It is therefore improbable that there would be any 187
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The Dissemination of Divination in
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Chapter 8 - Sources to Roman Divina
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List of Figures Figure 3.1. Types o
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Acknowledgements Certain parts of t
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people. It is almost unanimously ag
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that precludes the investigation fr
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asic cognitive functions could acco
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Lienard & Feeney 2006), prayer (Bar
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“the making clear of something”
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In chapter 5 it is argued that obla
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Chapter 1 - History of divination a
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with *-eu appears in two forms. One
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involving the Korinthian Polyidos.
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The 15 th edition of the Encyclopae
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Chapter 2 - A History of Modern Div
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and games of chance a secondary dev
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causes. This is also the case conce
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Evans-Pritchard also uses a lot of
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through casting the decision “upo
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transformed and new relations are g
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Somewhat between the great currents
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efutations. With this article Zeitl
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the function of divination. Special
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Chapter 3 - Definition and typology
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means signs obtained from the gods
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producer. In this case we see that
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Chapter 4 - Impetrative Divination
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ontogenetic histories. Some feeling
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direct people in their life. It can
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or potential misfortune or lack of
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Before making blood-brotherhood Bef
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It was argued that emotion was cent
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Figure 4.2. Intentional action It i
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Figure 4.4. Ritualized action in di
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was the counterintuitive agent who
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education. 43 These problems requir
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Credibility 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1
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Clairvoyant, and Astrologist. There
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Materials A booklet similar to the
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Summary The thesis of this chapter
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present existence, as the slogan go
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Let us presently consider how hyper
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1963). Michotte had subjects watch
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another that they were playing agai
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monkeys. There is evidence that in
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Sperber and Wilson programmatically
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humans communicate by producing sig
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Let us consider some examples of th
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Henrich and Gil-White supply precis
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communicator (T.S. Elliot) or a mil
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professors are not routinely attrib
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thought it most likely the main cha
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Chapter 5 - Oblative divination 82
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her life”. 85 In the example the
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in the city. To most modern people
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answer. In oblative divination the
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Figure 6.1. brings together the obs
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questions on how much disease there
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While many good and detailed models
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Unexpected event Figure 6.3. Web of
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Chapter 7 - Research history on Rom
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assumption is that divination, espe
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It can be seen that Latte's as well
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oth shared the same attitude toward
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vastly different views on what legi
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& Scheid 1994; Linder & Scheid 1993
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the observation. If the fear thesis
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Page 141 and 142: Post-republican writers Verrius Fla
Page 143 and 144: M. Servius Honoratus Marius Servius
Page 145 and 146: The only full description we have o
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Page 149 and 150: All places where auspices should be
Page 151 and 152: anyhow. There is therefore no reaso
Page 153 and 154: The credibility value of the greate
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Page 157 and 158: Utility and Credibility value The a
Page 159 and 160: History Since it is mentioned in th
Page 161 and 162: Technique Let us consider public so
Page 163 and 164: Private sortition Private sortition
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Page 167 and 168: Extispicy is a form of divination w
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Page 171 and 172: (North 1990). In Etruria these indi
Page 173 and 174: Sibylline books The Sibylline Books
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Page 179 and 180: Howevere, there are practices in wh
Page 181 and 182: Technique Descriptives Credibility
Page 183 and 184: History Let us see how these observ
Page 185: Summary To summarize the conclusion
Page 189 and 190: Dissemination Private sortition Pub
Page 191 and 192: “may the gods avert (bad) omens
Page 193 and 194: excelled every race and every natio
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Page 203 and 204: 1,2 1 0,4 0,2 0 Omen words in Greek
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Page 215 and 216: two seem to have been used in the c
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Page 219 and 220: The actual interpretations we hear
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Appendix 2 The Guzul In Central Aus
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Appendix 4 Roman Words Omen Prodigi
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Theocritus 21261 1.88 1.88 0 0 0.32
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Moon fell down Capua Goats got wool
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Note: *this is possibly not a separ
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Temple of Ceres struck by lightning
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Sheep with two heads born Suessa Pi
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12 year old hermaphrodite discovere
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Cows were talking Campania Bronze c
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*This prodigy may be the same as th
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156 Storm destroys sacred places on
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* Since the Graecostasis was right
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An owl was seen on the Capitol Roma
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* Rasmussen counts as two (Rasmusse
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Sun formed a disc like a shield at
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Two calfs were found in the entrail
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Fire in the sky Note: While this pr
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Tornado ripped of roofs Bridge coll
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Doors to the temple of Fortuna open
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Appendix 6 Examples of counterintui
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Bibliography Primary Sources 220 La
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Secondary sources Abbink, J. 1993:
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Bering, J. M. and Johnson, D. P. 20
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Callaway, H. 1970: The Religious Sy
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Dumezil, G. 1970: Archaic Roman Rel
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Guillaumont, F. 1984: Philosophe et
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Koenig, M. A., Clement, F., and Har
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Luterbacher, F. 1967: Der Prodigien
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Patton, L. L. 2000: "The Magic in M
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Schilling, R. 1979: "A propos des "
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Taylor, L. R. 1949: Party Politics
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Woodward, J. 2000: "Explanation and
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Oprindeligt blev divination forklar
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menneskelig perception eller ræson
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I kapitel 6 sammenlignes observatio
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Den sidste ligning udtrykker, at sa
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The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

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