The dissemination of divination in roman republican times

Unexpected
event
Salient event
Catalogue of
signs
Dissemination of omens
Current
Concerns
Figure 10.10. Dissemination of omens
Credibility
value
Direct
prestige
Social hierarchy
Distribution of prestige
Cultural
model
Frequency of
communication
about omens
We can see that there are plenty of opportunities for a salient event to become an omen.
Unexpected events probably never seize to occur, and people never seize to have concerns. The
catalogues of signs may disappear, but this category was not found to be the most important for
the Romans. We also see that the credibility value of omens was high because prodigies were
treated officially. Omens were not considered, as they would become, futile superstition, but a
central part of official policy. Furthermore omens were often the subject of communication. This
would have given the effect of constantly sensitizing the Romans to the possibility of the gods
giving a sign. This is what we called a “cultural prime” in chapter 5. While the number of salient
events is probably constant the last two factors are probably important factors. The wide
dissemination is self reinforcing: the more people talk about omens, the more they are sensitized
to them and the more they identify omens, which in turn makes them talk more about it. The
only thing that can stop this is if the credibility value is low. Today, people very rarely bother to
tell that a black cat ran across the road, because the credibility value of the omen is so low. The
same would have been the case for the Romans. As long as they believed that omens gave
credible knowledge about the future they would keep talking about it. In the period under
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