Towards a Baltic Sea Region Strategy in Critical ... - Helsinki.fi

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CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION be higher than along the west coast. In Finland, approximately 600 aquifers of total 12,982 aquifers (Britschgi and Gustafsson 1996) extend to the seacoast (Figure 1) and there are lot of public water works and private dug wells in these aquifers. In addition, there are numerous summer cottages on the coast and by tradition each cottage has its own well. Previous studies The morphology and sedimentary of the First Salpausselkä formation and the groundwater aquifer in the Hanko area have been investigated by many studies (e.g. Fyfe 1991, Kielosto et al. 1996). The first plan for groundwater protection for Hanko was conducted by Harju (1997), and the plan was updated by Maa ja Vesi (2005). The Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) studied the geological structure of groundwater aquifer in the Hanko and nearby areas (Breilin, et al. 2004). The study clarified the geological structure of bedrock and simplified the groundwater model of the First Salpausselkä formation – the main groundwater aquifer formation. The accommodation between groundwater protection and aggregate supply, also known as the POSKI project, was carried out in the provinces of Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa 1998 – 2004 (Kinnunen et al. 2006). The project aimed at protecting the environmental values of the geological formations as well as securing the supply of high quality ground water for the communities and high quality aggregate for building purposes. A detailed geological modelling of the sedimentary and groundwater area was carried out in a small oil contamination area in Trollberget (DEMO-MNA, Jørgensen et al. 2006), 5 km north of Hanko town centre, together with the feasibility study of a remediation technique for oil and heavily contaminated soils, which is located in the northern part of the Hanko groundwater aquifer. The above studies showed that the sedimentary and morphology of the First Salpausselkä formation is quite complicated with alterations of gravel and sand layers and layers of fine sediments such as silt and clay. Groundwater levels also vary and many places are located very close to the surface, which are vulnerable to contamination. The potential impacts of climate change on shallow aquifers in coastal regions range mainly from changes in precipitation patterns, in evaporation, and subsequently change in groundwater recharge, and finally seawater intrusion to the aquifer. These subjects have been examined in two Baltic Sea Region (BSR) INTERREG IIIB projects, “Sea level change affecting spatial development in the Baltic Sea Region” (Schmidt-Thomé 2006a and Schmidt-Thomé 2006b) and “Developing policies & adaptation strategies to climate change in the Baltic Sea Region (ASTRA)” (ASTRA 2007), both coordinated by the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK). The project groups consisted of cities and municipalities that closely cooperated with several European research institutes. The recent statements of the Fourth Assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) state that climate change is no longer avoidable, underlined the importance of such projects. Meanwhile the SEAREG project focussed mainly on sea level changes and following potential impacts on changing flood prone areas, the follow-up project, ASTRA, aims at developing regional concepts to cope with a wider range of potentially adverse effects of climate change, e.g. droughts. Although climate change is a global problem, its impacts will vary locally and therefore it is a challenge to develop adequate adaptation 194 NORDREGIO REPORT 2007:5
CHAPTER VI: WATER strategies. The awareness that adaptation strategies evolve from regional experience and that their integration is better feasible and judge able at the regional rather than at the global level, was a further motivation for ASTRA. Much the same subject matter was discussed in the FINADAPT-project (Silander et al. 2006). The results of these previous projects are here applied on a new case study area, including a wider scope, i.e. risks. Concerning the associated hazards of climate change, the major endeavour for humankind is to provide safe limits for both nature and humanity. The global population and economy will grow further. Most energy and industrial production, as well as transportation, will rely on fossil fuels also in the near future, and climate change scenarios indicate an increase in the average global temperature of up to 6.4 °C by 2100 (IPCC 2007). Therefore regional consequences, in particular with respect to future planning strategies, must be evaluated carefully. Climate change in the BSR The SEAREG project developed three scenarios ranging from ‘low case’ to ‘high case’ for winter mean sea surface height for 2071-2100 using a reference data from 1961-1990. In the Hanko area, the low case scenario indicates a drop of the 1990 sea level by -35 cm, the ensemble average scenario 15 cm and the high case scenario of 64 cm sea level rise, respectively (Meier et al. 2004 and Meier et al. 2006). Although mean annual sea surface height is an important figure, storm surges pose a greater acute risk in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). For example, the westerly winds of 9 January 2005 caused the sea level to rise 151 cm in Helsinki and 130 cm in Hanko. The storm surges that push the water masses towards the south coast of Finland are reckoned to become more common in late 21st century (Marttila et al. 2005). Scenario simulations have shown that for the BSR some serious consequences of climate change can be anticipated by 2100. This holds for warming and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as for sea-level increases. Recent state of the art knowledge implies that effects like temperature increase and sea-level rise have been underestimated over recent decades. If the prognosis of the IPCC (2007) comes true, and if humankind does not take appropriate action to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration radically, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth in 1,000 years, and probably even the last 100,000 years. This large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. Model results and examination of measured data in several regions show that there might be strong variations in precipitation patterns. Changes in temperature extremes have already been observed, for example during the summer of 2003, with maximum heat record of 33.3 °C in the Mietoinen province, southwestern Finland. Model outputs show changes in extreme events for future climates, including increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. An important threat for BSR is the rise in sea level. Although the SEAREG project has already attempted to estimate future risks, new results imply that the rise in sea level is accelerating. For example, neither the rapid melting of the Greenland glaciers over the last 20 years, nor the measured and simulated gauge levels, was considered adequately. Also, it is highly likely that an increase in NORDREGIO REPORT 2007:5 195
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Towards a Baltic Sea Region Strateg
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Nordregio Report 2007:5 ISSN 1403-2
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5.4 Impacts caused by terrorism, na
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CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION
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PREFACE PREFACE With the Commission
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PREFACE The study includes tens of
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CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION CHAPTER I:
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CHAPTER II: ELECTRICITY 2 ELECTRIC
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