Microseismic Monitoring and Geomechanical Modelling of CO2 - bris

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Introduction
A technology push approach, based on large-scale research and technology deployment programmes
and new breakthrough technologies, is needed to achieve deeper GHG cuts in the long run (2050 and
beyond).
Global Environmental Outlook 4
United Nations Environment Programme
1.1 The motivation for geologic CO 2 storage
In 1903, A.R. Wallace (Charles Darwin’s co-discoverer of evolution) identified that the coal smog
and pollution produced by large industrialised cities represented a grave threat to the health of the
inhabitants. On the inside cover of this thesis I have reprinted his exhortation for political leadership
to do something about it. Our response as a society was such that, 100 years later, air pollution is
no longer a major problem in most modern cities (although it remains a problem in less developed
nations lacking the technology to deal with it). His exhortation is still equally relevant today, however,
because humanity now faces a new threat, still related to the burning of coal which Wallace railed
against over a century ago. This threat is not limited to the inhabitants of one smoggy city, but could
well affect all life, human and not, on the planet. While we have been able to dramatically reduce
the emission of sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and particulate matter that caused so many problems
in 19th Century London, coal fired power plants emit to the atmosphere essentially as much CO 2 per
tonne of coal burned as they did in Wallace’s time.
Now the scale is magnified because there are many more people around the world depending on
coal power than 100 years ago. Furthermore, according to the latest climate predictions, we must
find a solution to the CO 2 problem far faster than we managed to deal with the air pollution issues
of 100 years ago. Clearly, dealing with the rapidly rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations caused by
anthropogenic emissions presents one of the greatest challenges of the 21 st century. We must act now,
and we must act decisively, in order to bring our CO 2 emissions under control. Wallace was right 100
years ago, and he is still right today.
Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels produces globally approximately 30 × 10 9 tonnes of CO 2 per
year (Holloway, 2001). Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA)
estimates that by 2050 this rate will have risen to 60×10 9 tonnes/yr. If atmospheric CO 2 levels are to
stay below 500ppm (the value deemed acceptable by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)), then emissions must be reduced to 14 × 10 9 tonnes/yr by 2050, a four-fold reduction from
the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Figure 1.1 shows how the IEA anticipates such reductions will be
achieved. It is clear that efficiency improvements, renewable energy and nuclear power must all play
their part in meeting emissions targets.
The largest increases in CO 2 emissions in the next 40 years will come from developing countries, in
particular India and China. These countries are already becoming the largest outright CO 2 emitters
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