Untitled - Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego

day in 2011, compared with 83.3 million barrels per day in 2005, i.e. by 12.5%.
The projected growth is the consequence of the economic boom in China, India
and Brazil. Further oil consumption growth is also projected in the US and in
Europe. Only in China, due to the growing number of cars, oil consumption will
rise from 4.7 million barrels per day in 2001 to 10 million barrels per day in 2011.
Optimistic projections of oil consumption favour growing orders for tankers.
A record number of suezmax tankers, i.e. 104 ships, are on order today
with most of them becoming operational in 2009. The tanker market will further
be supplemented by 102 VLCC tankers, which should come into operations in
the years 2009-2010.
The order books, at the beginning of 2007, contained mostly 80-120 thousand
ton tankers and 200-320 thousand tonne vessels. The size of the portfolio
showed in these tonnage groups 25.5 million DWT and 49.2 million DWT respectively.
According to Fearnleys estimates, as of 1.01. 2010, 1446 tankers will be
operated in the 25-50 thousand DWT range, 857 tankers in the 80-120 thousand
DWT range and 551 tankers over 200 thousand DWT. In tonnage terms, tankers
over 200 thousand DWT are the dominating group, with total tonnage amounting
to 1632 million DWT, and in the group 80-120 thousand DWT the total tonnage
amounts to 89.3 million DWT.
It is estimated that in view of new orders and partial scrapping of the fleet
operated today the tanker fleet at the beginning of 2010 should reach 421 million
DWT 8 .
We can note clearly falling interest in multipurpose/combined bulk carriers,
above all because of the high construction price and rising operational and
maintenance costs, which is confirmed in the forecasts. In 2006 and at the beginning
of 2007, the order books in world shipyards did not note an order for this
type of vessel. Also in the years 2008 and 2009 no such orders are expected. Both
the tonnage and number of ships in this group fall from year to year. Estimates
for the beginning of 2010 project the fleet of multipurpose bulk carriers to
number approximately 80 ships of 7.6 million DWT.
An opposite trend can be seen in the case of dry bulk carriers. The order
book for this type of ships has been growing and at the beginning of 2007
claimed 911 ships totalling 75.4 million tonnes. Orders for these ship types are
dominated by 60-100 thousand DWT units (total tonnage 17.4 million DWT),
150-200 thousand DWT (17.8 million DWT) and over 200 thousand DWT (16.7
million DWT). According to Fearnleys projections, the number of newbuildings
and tonnage volume will continue to grow and is estimated to reach 6,906 ships
totalling 421.2 million DWT in 2010 9 .
Equally dynamic development is enjoyed by liquid and natural gas carriers.
This trend results from the growing demand for the carriage of this cargo world-
8 Review 2006. Fearnleys’ Annual Review. Fearnresearch 2007. Oslo 2007, p. 63.
9 Ibid. p. 71:
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