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Chapter 16 Project planning and control 481 Figure 16.19 New logistics operation: precedence network Programme evaluation and review technique (PERT) The programme evaluation and review technique, or PERT as it is universally known, had its origins in planning and controlling major defence projects in the US Navy. PERT had its most spectacular gains in the highly uncertain environment of space and defence projects. The technique recognizes that activity durations and costs in project management are not deterministic (fixed), and that probability theory can be applied to estimates, as was mentioned earlier. In this type of network each activity duration is estimated on an optimistic, a most likely and a pessimistic basis, as shown in Figure 16.20. If it is assumed that these time estimates are consistent with a beta probability distribution, the mean and variance of the distribution can be estimated as follows: where t e = t e = the expected time for the activity t o = the optimistic time for the activity t l = the most likely time for the activity t p = the pessimistic time for the activity. t o + 4t l + t p 6
482 Part Three Planning and control Figure 16.20 Probabilistic time estimates can be summed to give a probabilistic estimate for the whole project The variance of the distribution (V) can be calculated as follows: (t (t p − t o ) 2 p − t o ) 2 V = = 6 2 36 The time distribution of any path through a network will have a mean which is the sum of the means of the activities that make up the path, and a variance which is a sum of their variances. In Figure 16.21: 2 + (4 × 3) +5 The mean of the first activity = = 3.17 6 (5 − 2) 2 The variance of the first activity = = 0.25 36 3 + (4 × 4) +7 The mean of the second activity = = 4.33 6 (7 − 3) 2 The variance of the second activity = = 0.44 36 The mean of the network distribution = 3.17 + 4.33 = 7.5 The variance of the network distribution = 0.25 + 0.44 = 0.69 It is generally assumed that the whole path will be normally distributed. The advantage of this extra information is that we can examine the ‘riskiness’ of each path through a network as well as its duration. For example, Figure 16.21 shows a simple two-path network. The top path is the critical one; the distribution of its duration is 10.5 with a variance of 0.06 (therefore a standard deviation of 0.245). The distribution of the non-critical path has a mean of 9.67 and a variance of 0.66 (therefore a standard deviation of 0.812). The
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sixth edition OperatiOns ManageMent
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Further reading in Operations Manag
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Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh
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Contents Guide to ‘operations in
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Contents ix Chapter 12 Inventory pl
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Guide to ‘operations in practice
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Guide to ‘operations in practice
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Making the most of this book and My
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Making the most of this book and My
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Preface xix Illustrations-based Ope
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To the Student . . . Making the mos
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About the authors Nigel Slack is th
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Publisher’s acknowledgements We a
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Part One INTRODUCTION This part of
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Chapter 1 Operations management 3 O
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Chapter 2 Operations performance 33
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Key operations questions Chapter 4
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Chapter 4 Process design Key questi
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88 Part Two Design Figure 4.2 The d
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90 Part Two Design Environmentally
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92 Part Two Design Figure 4.3 Diffe
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94 Part Two Design Professional ser
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96 Part Two Design Figure 4.4 Devia
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98 Part Two Design Figure 4.6 Proce
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100 Part Two Design Figure 4.8 Flow
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102 Part Two Design Given that an i
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104 Part Two Design From Little’s
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106 Part Two Design The relationshi
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108 Part Two Design Summary answers
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110 Part Two Design the grant appli
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Chapter 5 The design of products an
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114 Part Two Design hopeless lack o
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116 Part Two Design Core products a
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118 Part Two Design Figure 5.3 The
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120 Part Two Design Short case Squa
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122 Part Two Design Critical commen
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124 Part Two Design Reducing design
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126 Part Two Design Figure 5.7 A QF
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128 Part Two Design Purpose Basic f
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130 Part Two Design Interactive des
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132 Part Two Design Early conflict
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134 Part Two Design Summary answers
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136 Part Two Design similar. It was
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Chapter 6 Supply network design Key
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140 Part Two Design The supply netw
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142 Part Two Design a particularly
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144 Part Two Design and expanding o
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146 Part Two Design Figure 6.4 Offs
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148 Part Two Design Controversially
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150 Part Two Design Energy costs. O
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152 Part Two Design product and fas
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154 Part Two Design Figure 6.7 Cent
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156 Part Two Design The blue dotted
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158 Part Two Design Table 6.4 The a
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160 Part Two Design Figure 6.11 Rep
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162 Part Two Design Case study Disn
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164 Part Two Design plastic, and ap
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166 Part Two Design of a failing Di
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Supplement to Chapter 6 Forecasting
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170 Part Two Design Figure S6.2 Som
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172 Part Two Design Figure S6.3 Tim
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174 Part Two Design Table S6.3 Expo
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176 Part Two Design a comparative s
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178 Part Two Design Operations in p
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180 Part Two Design The basic layou
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182 Part Two Design In functional l
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184 Part Two Design Figure 7.5 The
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186 Part Two Design shown with thre
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188 Part Two Design Table 7.2 The a
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190 Part Two Design Combinatorial c
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192 Part Two Design The general fun
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194 Part Two Design Heuristic proce
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196 Part Two Design Figure 7.16 (a)
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198 Part Two Design the total work
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200 Part Two Design Working from th
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202 Part Two Design ● ● ● Hig
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204 Part Two Design Table 7.4 Stand
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Chapter 8 Process technology Key qu
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208 Part Two Design What is process
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210 Part Two Design be used where c
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212 Part Two Design Here we will ex
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214 Part Two Design E-business E-co
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216 Part Two Design Table 8.2 Examp
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218 Part Two Design Customer-proces
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220 Part Two Design ‘drive’ it.
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222 Part Two Design Figure 8.6 Diff
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224 Part Two Design Short case SVT
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226 Part Two Design Table 8.5 Prese
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228 Part Two Design Anticipating im
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230 Part Two Design Case study Roch
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232 Part Two Design Problems and ap
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234 Part Two Design Operations in p
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236 Part Two Design Human resource
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238 Part Two Design Table 9.2 Cause
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240 Part Two Design ● Group resou
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242 Part Two Design Job design Job
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244 Part Two Design ● ● ● ●
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246 Part Two Design Figure 9.7 A ty
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248 Part Two Design asked to contri
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250 Part Two Design ● ● ● Eff
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252 Part Two Design Table 9.3 Examp
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254 Part Two Design Qualified worke
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256 Part Two Design Case study Serv
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258 Part Two Design 3 4 5 Step 1 -
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260 Part Two Design them. This mean
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262 Part Two Design Work measuremen
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264 Part Two Design Figure S9.1 Tim
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Key operations questions Chapter 10
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Chapter 10 The nature of planning a
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270 Part Three Planning and control
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276 Part Three Make-to-stock Planni
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282 Part Three Last-in first-out se
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Chapter 12 Inventory planning and c
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Chapter 14 Enterprise resource plan
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Supplement to Chapter 14 Materials
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Part Four IMPROVEMENT Even the best
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Chapter 18 Operations improvement 5
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in both scientific management and m
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Chapter 19 Risk management Key ques
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Chapter 19 Risk management 585 Tabl
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● ● ● Chapter 19 Risk managem
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Risk mitigation actions Chapter 19
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■ ■ Chapter 19 Risk management
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Chapter 19 Risk management 599 1.24
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Chapter 20 Organizing for improveme
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● ● ● ● understand and beli
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The Deming Prize Chapter 20 Organiz
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Part Five CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSI
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Chapter 21 Operations and corporate
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● ● ● ● ● Chapter 21 Oper
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Notes on chapters 653 3 Sources inc
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Notes on chapters 655 ground data:
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Notes on chapters 657 national Jour
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Glossary 659 Breakthrough improveme
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Glossary 661 Division of labour: an
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Glossary 663 Internal customers: pr
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Glossary 665 Partnership: a type of
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Glossary 667 Reliability: when appl
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Glossary 669 Transformation process
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‘blue sky’ research projects 45
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cumulative representation 317-22 cu
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failures (continued) estimates of o
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inventories (continued) de-coupling
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mitigation of ethical practice brea
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precedence diagrams 197-9, 481 prec
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esources 7-8 business continuity 59
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supply chains (continued) meaning 3
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