Estratègies per al desenvolupament sostenible - Generalitat de ...

4.4.5. Scenario development. Scenarios are powerful tools for addressing what isboth fundamentally significant and profoundly unknowable – the future. Whereasforecasts predict patterns extrapolated from the past into the future, scenariospresent plausible, pertinent, alternative “stories”. They rely on imaging thefuture, rather than extrapolating from the past. Yet they are not predictions,but are means to explore options and test their robustness or sensitivity. Assuch, they can help to build the capacity to assess change, to look for majorshifts rather than assume continued trend, and to build creativity and resilienceto deal with such shifts. The assumptions behind each scenario are as importantas the scenario itself and need as much discussion.Scenarios might regularly be developed to assist in NSSDs by consideringthe likely environmental, social and economic consequences of trends in keyvariables such as demographics, political risk, consumption and production,and/or the consequences of taking particular actions or policy options. Differentscenarios can be constructed to maximize, minimize or optimize theenvironmental, social and economic consequences as appropriate.Scenarios depend on good knowledge of the past and present, and goodjudgement regarding the issues that may matter. Scenario approaches canbe expert-based (in which case multiple disciplines are desirable, to be ableto assess the multiple dimensions and access/interpret data) or participatoryin the sense that stakeholders get together to develop an exercise (in whichcase professional facilitation is desirable). The descriptions of alternativescenarios need to be useful to many people involved in strategy debate anddecision-making 7 .There is considerable experience in the use of scenario planning in the privatesector. For example, Shell International (still considered by many to be a leaderin the field) has developed global scenarios for 1995–2020 to help preparefor discontinuities and sudden change, to create unifying themes and images,and to help foster cohesion within the company 8 . In 1997, the World BusinessCouncil for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) also experimented with a setof three global scenarios that explore and aim to stimulate broad discussionon possible responses to the challenge of sustainable development. TheWBCSD recognized that scenarios have various applications:7 Lester Brown, State of the World 2001. Worldwatch Institute in Association with Earthscan. London.1508 Shell International (1996), Global Scenarios 1995-2020. Shell International. London.