The genus Cinnamomum

306 M.S. Madan and S. Kannan
of its solubility in potassium hydroxide (80–88%). For cassia oil, cinnamaldehyde is the
major constituent and a minimum content of 80% is specified in the ISO standard.
Cinnamon bark oil is considerably more expensive than the leaf oil and probably
the most highly priced of all essential oils. During 1992 it was being offered at around
US$385/kg, largely reflecting the high raw material cost. In 1993 and early 1994
dealers in London were only quoting prices on request. Cinnamon leaf oil, in contrast,
has been in the range of US$6.50–7.50/kg during the past three years. The price fell
gradually from US$7.50/kg in early 1991 to US$6.50/kg in mid-1993. In late 1993,
it had risen again to US$7.30/kg and in early 1994 it was US$8.25/kg. Although it is
a comparatively low priced oil, it is still more expensive than clove leaf oil as a source
of eugenol (which was approximately US$2.70/kg in early 1994).
Cassia oil, too, has remained fairly level in price over the last few years. During early
1991 to mid-1993, it fetched US$33–35/kg. The price then fell slightly and in early 1994
it was about US$29/kg. These prices are significantly lower than those that prevailed in
the early and mid 1980s when there was a shortage of cassia bark in the People’s Republic
of China. Any appreciable rise in price above the US$30–35/kg level is likely to encourage
end-users to blend cheaply available synthetic cinnamaldehyde with natural cassia oil.
Future Prospects
Like all other spices cinnamon and cassia are also subject to vagaries of the market. This
could have adverse effects on the cinnamon growers of the developing countries.
However, there are also favourable trends, which could be exploited. There is a strong
growing market in the Middle East as well as in the Asia Pacific region, where a strong
preference for specific flavours exists. The introduction of new snack foods is dependent
to a large extent on the difference of flavours. Another factor, which is encouraging for
developing countries, is the increase in global travel. This leads people to experiment
with different flavours and spicy food. It has also given rise to the increase in ethnic
restaurants. The importance of cinnamon is predominantly in the food-processing sector.
The future prospects for cinnamon and cassia can be studied in terms of two major
influencing factors: supply and demand. Cinnamon and cassia production is influenced
by national as well as international factors. While demand is influenced by many
factors including the overall economic development, supply is influenced not only by
economic factors but also by agro-climatic, biotic and abiotic stress factors in the growing
regions. The product of commerce comes from perennial tree crops, hence responses
to price changes get reflected in the form of altened supply after many years. Thus,
there are a multitude of factors which are to be considered when forecasting the future
of cinnamon and cassia. The kind of data available to us do not permit sophisticated
forecasting models which may give correct and reliable predictions. What we have is
only the historic data for area, production and export. A suitable model, which can give
a reasonable prediction with these data, has been identified and fitted and this must be
seen as a step on the road towards a more sophisticated modelling analysis based on
superior data once if they become available.
Model identification
A variety of statistical forecasting techniques are available, ranging from very simple to
very sophisticated. All of them try to capture the statistical distributions in the data