The genus Cinnamomum

S t 0.37Y t 0.63S t1
Economics and Marketing of Cinnamon and Cassia 309
The global demand for cinnamon is expected to be around 102,616 t by 2004–05
(Table 12.21).
Supply
Table 12.21 The forecasted world production and export of
cinnamon (canella) up to 2005–06
Year Production Export/demand
1999–2000 134,417.36 88,358.05
2000–01 137,312.09 91,209.80
2001–02 140,206.81 94,061.55
2002–03 143,101.53 96,913.30
2003–04 145,996.26 99,765.05
2004–05 148,890.98 10,2616.80
Source: Based on FAO Data.
The opposite considerations apply to supply. Here, Indonesia holds the key. Its ability
to regulate supply of cassia is likely to dictate the price internationally. Indonesia’s
management of this issue may be influenced by the proximity of the energetic entrepot
Singapore. New exporters of cassia must also be conscious of China and now Vietnam
and the speed at which they are expanding production level. Total world production of
cinnamon is growing at the rate of 5.6% per annum, which is more than the world
population growth rate. Thus, the anticipated supply in the form of increased production
is expected to be a positive one. The fitted equation based on the selected
model is:
S t 0.987Y t 0.013S t1
Accordingly the projected world supply in the form of production increase up to
2004–05 will be as shown in the Table 12.21. The expected supply (production) by the
year 2005–06 will be around 148,890 t. As can be seen from the fitted equation, where
is nearer to one, recent developments have more impact on the future supply.
As concluded by Vinning (1990) the combination of the above two calculations of
supply and demand suggest that within the overall pessimistic outlook the prospects
for cassia is better than for cinnamon in the years to come.
References
Anonymous (1995) Cassia (Cinnamon) – A Modern Herbal Home Page. Eletronic
Newsletter.
Anonymous (accessed in December 2001) Cassia. http://herbal-tonics.com/pc-ingr.html/.
Anonymous (accessed in December 2001) http://www.mekonginfo.org/mrc-on/doclib.net/.
Baruah, A. (2000) Cinnamomum verum Presl., the source of inevitable flavouring spicy bark –
True Cinnamon. Spice India – Tree Spices Special, November, 2000, pp. 5–7.