Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

International relations and the new world governance
Russia, China and, above all, India have very large Muslim populations
which are the source of very serious problems even today. Pakistan
is a nuclear power with a political regime as unstable as it is corrupt.
The wealthy Gulf States finance the expansion of radicalism across the
planet, which is evident in places like Latin America, North America and
Europe. Energy, nuclear proliferation and Islamism are not watertight
compartments each with its own logic. On the contrary, there is a great
deal of convergence between these problems, Iran perhaps being the
most exemplary case: an Islamist regime with substantial petroleum and
gas reserves located in the Persian Gulf at the centre of the routes devised
to transport gas from Central Asia to open seas, and close to equipping
one of its medium-range missiles with a nuclear warhead. These
problems, which present themselves in a complex manner, can only be
tacked—that is if we are willing to tackle them—from a comprehensive
perspective and after a tricky and complex diplomatic process involving
the main players.
The expression «asymmetric multilateralism» is a clear reflection of
the current situation. But the 21 st -century world is not just multilateral.
As a continuation of the Westphalian world, bilateral affairs will still be
of crucial importance, although they will be conducted in parallel or from
multilateral organisations. When the then Defence Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld referred to the concept of «alliances of the willing» he was not,
as many thought, letting off steam or threatening «Old Europe». He was
literally describing a reality that was approaching and has now arrived.
The Atlantic Alliance was established on an incredibly vague legal commitment.
The famous article 5, the wording of which was an imposition
of the US, basically means that in the event that one of the signatories
is attacked the rest will decide what to do—from sending a telegram of
condolence to mobilising all military forces. NATO is an institution which
contrasts with the European tradition, in which alliances were based on
total commitment of mutual defence, as enshrined in the Brussels Treaty
of 1948. It was the Soviet Union and US willingness to deploy troops to the
border line which gave NATO a cohesive commitment which is not found
in the treaty. Today, without the Soviet threat and with gaps in the strategic
vision, NATO has again become an «alliance of the willing». Following
the collapse of the Atlantic Alliance with the Cold War, the western nations
belonging to this organisation need to establish relevant agreements for
each crisis situation. This is not an option, it is a necessity. However action
of this kind is not without a multilateral element. NATO, having become
a security services agency, provides its members with doctrines and
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