Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

The global recession and its impact on international economic relations
economies of the rich countries will shrink by 3.4% in 2009 and grow at a
slow 1.3% in 2010. The slump will be prevented from being greater by the
huge fiscal stimuli and recovery will be faster in the United States than in
the euro area (see table 1).
TABLE 1
GDP growth (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011† 2014
United States 2.1 0.4 -2.9 1.2 3.0 2.2
Euro area 2.7 0.7 -4.2 0.9 2.0 2.3
Japan 2.3 -0.7 -5.4 1.7 2.2 1.9
Emerging and developing
economies
8.3 6.0 1.5 5.0 n/a 6.7
Oil exporters 7.4 5.4 -2.4 2.9 n/a 4.6
European Union 3.1 1.1 -4.3 0.2 n/a 2.7
Germany 2.5 1.3 -5.3 -0.1 2.2 2.2
France 2.3 0.3 -2.4 0.8 2.0 2.3
Italy 1.6 -1 -5.1 0.2 1.7 1.9
Spain 3.7 1.2 -3.7 -0.7 0.9 2.1
United Kingdom 2.6 0.7 -4.5 0.7 2.5 2.9
Canada 2.5 0.4 -2.3 1.9 3.3 2.2
Africa 6.2 5.3 1.6 4.1 n/a 5.3
Central and Eastern Europe (*) 5.5 3.1 -5.7 1.6 n/a 4.1
Russia 8.1 5.6 -8.5 1.5 4.2 5
Emerging and developing Asia 10.6 7.6 6.1 7.3 n/a 8.8
China 13 9.0 8.5 9 9.3 10.0
Argentina 8.7 6.8 -2.5 1.0 n/a 3.0
Brazil 5.7 5.1 -1.0 3.0 4.5 3.6
Mexico 3.3 1.3 -7.3 3.3 3.9 4.9
Source: WEO, October 2009.
(†) OECD data
(*) Including non-EU Member States.
The causes of this incipient recovery lie in the ambitious policies
designed to sustain demand, which both wealthy and emerging countries
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