Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Vicente Garrido Rebolledo
Iran) (6) with the non-proliferation commitments, minimizing the disarmament
clauses and obligations assumed by the de iure nuclear countries
in the context of the NPT, especially at the 1995 and 2000 review conferences.
However, throughout 2009 we have witnessed a highly favourable
change in governments’ and civil society’s perception (especially that
of the study and research centres, experts and specialist NGOs) of the
future of the NPT, largely as a result of the expectations of the so-called
«Obama effect» on the nuclear non-proliferation regime. As various
government representatives pointed out during the third session of
the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) of the NPT Review Conference
(New York, 4-15 May 2009) «atmospherics are very important in discussions»
on the NTP (Ireland). In addition, «the speeches made by leaders
of nuclear-weapon states on disarmament are an important element
because they create a positive psychological signal» (Brazil), although,
as a representative of the League of Arab States recognised, «the «good
intentions of the new Government of the United Status» are welcome,
but «have yet to result in any tangible measures and do not diminish the
need to address the obstacles and challenges that threaten the future of
the Treaty» (7).
Indeed, as the Ambassador on a Special Mission for Disarmament
Affairs, Miguel Aguirre de Cárcer, pointed out at the beginning of 2009,
the non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament agenda had stalled and the
mood was predominantly pessimistic. No substantial progress had been
made in the strategic nuclear disarmament process since Presidents Bush
and Putin signed the Treaty of Moscow in 2002. The 2005 NPT Review
Conference had ended in a resounding failure. Cooperation between
the five nuclear powers recognised by the NPT and permanent Security
Council members was at its lowest. The Conference on Disarmament (CD)
had been at a standstill for over 10 years. The Comprehensive Nuclear
Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) of 1996 had not yet entered into force as it still
had to be ratified by nine states, including the US. The lack of progress
in the nuclear issues of North Korea and Iran aroused expectations of an
(6) As pointed out, for example, by Eliot Kang and Judith Gough in their papers delivered
at the international conference entitled «The future of the non-proliferation regime: prospects
for the 2010 NPT Conference» organised by the INCIPE in Madrid on 19 November
2009. See a summary of the conference in http://www.incipe.org/19nov2009.html.
(7) The statements are published in CHOUBEY, Deepti, Restoring the NPT. Essential Steps
for 2010, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC, November 2009,
pp. 5-7, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/restoring_the_npt.pdf.
— 183 —