Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Eduardo Serra Rexach
Change (IPCC), ranging from the assumption that all gas emissions are
immediately frozen to the various alternatives depending on economic
growth, trends in world population and the speed at which new technologies
are introduced. In any event shrinkage of sea ice, a decline in snow cover
and greater warming of land than sea areas are considered to be results of
this climate trend. Likewise, more frequent extreme weather events, heat
waves and tropical cyclones are considered likely, as is an increase in precipitations
at higher latitudes and a decrease in subtropical regions.
Yolanda Castro lists the main impacts of these projected climate changes:
a) On freshwater resources: more areas affected by drought, a decline
in water supplies stored in glaciers and snow clover and reduced
availability of water chiefly at some mid- and lower latitudes.
b) On ecosystems: greater risk of extinction of species (both plants
and animals).
c) On agriculture and forests: increase in crop productivity with slight
temperature increases (between 1º and 3º C) but a major decrease
beyond that. More frequent droughts and flooding will affect crop
production negatively at low latitudes.
d) On coastal systems: the most important aspect is flooding, which
will affect many millions of people.
As is only to be expected, all these impacts will affect many human
activities:
a) Depletion of resources.
1) Basically water, leading to social unrest and major economic
losses, as well as regional tensions.
2) A decrease is also expected in world fish reserves and, in general,
a rise in food prices, especially from 2050 onwards.
3) Another resource that will be significantly affected by climate
change is energy, although the impacts will vary greatly according
to the source. While there will be pressure against the use
of energy derived from fossil fuels, a substantial rise in renewable
energies is expected (and is already occurring). The authors
advocate reconsidering nuclear energy.
b) Damage to infrastructure, especially in areas affected by coastal
and river flooding, examples being ports and oil refineries.
c) Mass migrations. Droughts, food shortages and flooding are expected
to cause mass displacements of people and could cause 200
million refugees by the middle of the century.
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