Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Yolanda Castro Díez
which describe alternative paths of technological change in the energy
system. The three AI groups differ as to technological orientation:
A1FI: Intensive use of fossil fuels.
A1T: Use of non-fossil energy sources.
A1B: «Balanced» use of all types of sources (meaning by «balanced»
a situation in which there is no excessive dependence on any one energy
source, on the assumption that all energy supply sources and all end use
technologies undergo similar improvements).
FAMILY A2: describes a very heterogeneous world. Its most distinctive
characteristics are self-reliance and preservation of local identities. The
birth rate across regions converges very slowly, resulting in a population
in constant growth. Economic development is basically geared to regions,
and economic growth per inhabitant and technological change are more
fragmented and slower than in other storylines.
FAMILY B1: describes a converging world with the same world population
which attains its maximum towards the middle of the century and
subsequently decreases, as in storyline A1, but with rapid changes in
the economic structures geared to a services- and information-based
economy, accompanied by a less intensive use of materials and the introduction
of clean technologies and effective use of resources. In this world
scenario priority is given to world-scale solutions that pursue economic,
social and environmental sustainability and greater equality, but additional
climate-related initiatives are absent.
FAMILY B2: describes a world in which local solutions to economic,
social and environmental sustainability are predominant. It is a world
whose population increases progressively at a slower rate than in A2, with
intermediate economic development rates and faster and more diverse
technological change than in storylines A1 and B1. Although this scenario
is also concerned with environmental protection and social equality, it is
mainly centred on the local and regional levels.
The projected global average surfacing warming for the end of the
21st century (2090–2099) compared to 1980–1999, obtained for different
emissions scenarios using a hierarchy of models ranging from a Simple
Climate Model to several Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
and a large number of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models,
included in the IPCC-4AR, is displayed in Table 1. The table shows the
difference between the different emission scenarios and the likely ranges
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