Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Climate change and its security implications
• The increased burden of diarrhoeal disease;
• The increased frequently of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher
concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate change;
• The altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors;
• Mixed effects are expected such as a decrease or increase in the
range and potential of malaria in Africa;
• Fewer deaths from cold exposure in temperate areas.
According to the World Health Organization, since 1970 climate
change has been responsible for approximately 150,000 deaths per year
through the increased incidence of diarrhoea, malaria and malnutrition.
The balance between positive and negative impacts on human health will
vary from place to place and be modified over time as temperatures continue
to rise. Factors that have a direct effect on populations’ health, such
as education, healthcare, public health initiatives and infrastructures and
economic development, are of critical importance.
SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
All the aforementioned possible changes will affect numerous social
and/or economic activities. The three basic socioeconomic aspects derived
from climate change are described below.
Depletion of resources
The three basic resources that will be depleted by climate change are
widespread availability of water, food and energy.
The shortage of water may lead to social unrest and give rise to significant
economic losses, even in sound economies, sparking tension in some regions
of the world, especially where several countries or several regions within a
country depend on the same water sources. Some examples of the foregoing
are the conflicts arising in northern Africa (over the Nile water supply), in the
Middle East (river Jordan) and in South East Asia (river Mekong).
The decrease in world fish reserves and the fall in agricultural productivity
owing to soil degradation, flooding, droughts, erosion and pests will
cause or worsen food insecurity in the less developed countries and a rise
in food prices everywhere which could become unsustainable. According
to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), climate
change will affect all four dimensions of food security: availability, access,
— 76 —