Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Yolanda Castro Díez
Bearing in mind the projected impacts associated with climate change,
planning of the following aspects is required from a security perspective.
Illegal immigration
Greater protection of national borders, both land and maritime, will
be required against flows of illegal immigrants, which will involve greater
demand for police resources. Between 2000 and 2005, 106 million people
were affected by floods and 38 million by hurricanes (15). Today 146
million people live at less than one metre above sea level (16) and lowlying
coastal areas located at less than 10 m above sea level are home to
10.5% of the world’s population, equivalent to some 602 million people
(17). The Stern Review (18) points out that forced displacements due
to sea level rise have already begun in some low elevation regions. For
example, flooding is becoming a serious problem in Bangladesh, where
approximately 40 million people live in the coastal areas; many have lost
their homes and have emigrated to India. Similarly, the governments of
some South Pacific islands such as Papua New Guinea and Tuvalu have
already started on evacuation plans. Tuvalu is expected to be completely
uninhabitable by the middle of the 21st century (19). Once again, the Stern
report states that taking as a whole the impact of sea-level rise, floods and
droughts, 200 million people could be displaced by the year 2050.
Migration-related crime
An increase in crime in relation to the aforementioned migratory flows is
expected. International migration has progressively become a security issue
for states, as the growing number of people who illegally enter a country not
their own highlights the permeability of borders and governments’ inability
to guard their territory. What is more, given their unfavourable financial
situation, illegal immigrants are often associated with organised crime and
(15) E. Pi g ue t, «Climate Change and Forced Migration», UNHCR Research Paper No.
153. UNHCR Policy Development and Evaluation Service, 2008, http://www.unhcr.
org/47a316182.html.
(16) D. An t h o f f, R.J. Ni c h o l l s, R.S. J. To l a n d A. Vafeidis, «Global and Regional Exposure to
Large Rises in Sea-Level: A Sensitivity Analysis», Tyndall Working Paper 96, 2006.
(17) G. McGr a n a h a n, D. Ba l k a n d B. An d e r s o n, «The Rising Tide: Assessing the Risks of
Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones», Environment
and Urbanization, 19(1), 2007.
(18) N. St e r n, «The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change», HM Treasury, 2006,
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm.
(19) Norwegian Refugee Council, «Future Floods of Refugees: A Comment on Climate
Change, Conflict and Forced Migration», 2009, www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf.
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