Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

José María Robles Fraga
table Pakistan to ensure that Pakistan plays a positive role throughout the
region.
Pakistan is experiencing a phase of serious political turmoil that is prolonging
the crisis which led to the fall of General Musharraf and followed
the assassination of the People’s Party leader Benazir Bhutto. Since then
the presidency of the Islamic republic has been held by her widower Asif
Ali Zardari and the prime minister is Raza Yousaf Gillani, also a member
of the PPP. In contrast Punjab, Pakistan’s main province, is governed
by their rivals belonging to the Muslim League Party of the former prime
minister Nawaz Sharif. The coming year the president will have to confirm
or change the army chief General Kiyani and until then we will not know
whether, at this decisive time for the world agenda, Pakistan continues
to be the indispensable partner we need in the region. Several factors
may complicate matters, among them the army’s defence of its strategic
autonomy, which may lead it to continue with the ambiguity and duplicity
in relations with the West and in the fight against the Afghan Taliban and
Jihadism or may trigger another political crisis in the headship of state
resulting in yet another change of leadership and government.
Pakistan must ultimately choose between contributing to the defeat of
the Taliban and Jihadism and running the risk of finding itself neglected
and isolated in a scenario that would be much worse than the current
situation. The world has changed considerably since this war began and
Pakistan must adapt and change its national security model and strategy
accordingly.
THE OTHER REGIONAL DIMENSION
Europe’s attitude should bear in mind that, although Pakistan is a key
country for Afghanistan, its other neighbours in the region also need to be
involved in the sustainability and stability of Afghanistan. Any European
strategy must be accompanied by constant action towards the other
neighbouring countries with which we have different instruments of relationship
and important means of influence and pressure.
The Af-Pak scenario is part of a puzzle of latent conflicts and crossed
interests in which the immediate neighbours and regional powers are
involved. Russia, China and, above all, India are parties concerned and
affected by the instability of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the threat of
Jihadist terrorism.
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