Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Vicente Garrido Rebolledo
(uprezhdayushchiy udar) and even against an adversary not possessing
nuclear weapons (negative security assurances)(71).
Finally, China’s official policy on nuclear no-first-use, negative security
assurances and other commitments in nuclear weapons control is
currently more symbolic than real, as it is practically impossible to verify
commitments in these fields. China has never clearly articulated a nuclear
doctrine on the deployment and response capability of its nuclear arsenal,
although both its activities and its programmes (on the basis of the scant
information available) indicate that Beijing only possesses a few limited
options regarding the utilisation of nuclear weapons. Nor does it appear to
be clear how the nuclear no-first-use policy can be maintained, especially
if it undermines China’s deterrence capability, a fundamental element of
its nuclear doctrine.
Lastly, the seventh priority on the new non-proliferation agenda is to
prevent terrorism with weapons of mass destruction (not only nuclear).
This brings us to the need to adopt a series of measures that are absolutely
essential, such as the improvement of facilities and physical protection
of nuclear materials. In this respect it is important to stress some
important advances such as the IAEA Code of Conduct on the Safety
and Security of Radioactive Sources and the implementation of Security
Council Resolution 1540, but it would be necessary to promote universal
accession to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear
Material, among other measures. As stated earlier, the convening by the
US of a World Summit on Physical Nuclear Security three weeks before
the holding of the NPT Review Conference may be a good time to reflect
on this possible «fourth pillar of non-proliferation», but, we stress, it should
not be used as a pretext to divert attention from the rest of the substantial
issues of the NPT.
Many pending issues that are not easy to solve undoubtedly remain on
this «list of good intentions» – such as how to guarantee the universality of
the NPT (that is, how to secure the accession of India, Pakistan and Israel,
which are highly reluctant to join). Pakistan considers that nuclear weapons
are its most valuable strategic asset and, ultimately, guarantee the existence
of the nation vis-à-vis what is considered to be the threat of India. As a
Pakistani general stated in a widely disseminated article, «Oxygen is basic
to life, and one does not debate its desirability, the «nuclear deterrence»
(71) «New Russian doctrine and preventive nuclear strikes» in Russian strategic nuclear forces,
http://russianforces.org/blog/2009/10/new_russian_doctrine_and_preve.shtml.
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