Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Climate change and its security implications
Particularly floods, disease and famine which will cause migration on
an unprecedented scale in areas that are already under great tension, or
droughts and losses of crops leading to fiercer competition for food, water
and energy in regions in which resources are already exploited to the hilt.
As mentioned in the introduction, the Security Council of the United
Nations General Assembly of 17 April 2007 opened a debate on «Energy,
security and climate», in which it became apparent that climate change is
transforming the concept of security. Among the various statements made in
the debate, the representative of the Congo stressed that a situation is approaching
in which the population will be drawn into a struggle both for land and
for the availability of water, food and energy on a much greater scale than in
other previous conflicts. The French representative described climate change
as «one of the main threats for the future of mankind». The representative of
Papua New Guinea mentioned that the dangers derived from climate change
which are faced by small island states and their populations will be just as or
more serious than those faced by nations and peoples under threat of arms
and bombs, since, for example, a sea-level increase of only half a metre will
endanger the survival of the population of many Pacific island states.
The United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, stated at the
Security Council that the prospects we face are alarming. Shortage of
resources—whether energy, water or cultivable land—may trigger the
emergence of disputes over their availability and management. These
disputes will affect not only relations between different countries but also
the collapse of the established codes of conduct, which may even lead to
open conflicts. Violent responses may also be expected from certain sectors
of society. For example, eco-terrorism is currently regarded as one of
the main terrorist threats in the United States (13, 14).
It is not merely a question of national security but of collective security
in a fragile and increasingly interdependent world, and once again the
main people affected will be those who are most vulnerable and least
capable of withstanding the impact. Nevertheless, outbreaks of violence
between communities and racist rejection of immigrant communities may
erupt also in countries with the capacity to adapt to climate change, such
as in Europe and North America.
(13) J.F. Ja r b o e, «The Threat of Eco-terrorism, Testimony Before the House Resources
Committee», Subcommittee on Forests and Forest Health, 2002,
http://www.fbi.gov/congress/congress02/jarboe021202.htm.
(14) J. Le w i s, «Statement Before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works»,
2005, http://www.fbi.gov/congress/congress05/lewis051805.htm.
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