Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Vicente Garrido Rebolledo
states to comply and prosecute cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials
and technologies (in accordance with Security Council Resolution
1540, of 28 April 2004); speeding up of the implementation of unequivocal
nuclear disarmament commitments by the five nuclear states and,
especially, negotiation of a treaty on the irreversibility of the production
of fissionable materials for nuclear programmes as a starting point; and,
finally, recognition of the volatility of the long drawn-out tension leading to
proliferation in regions such as the Middle East and Korean Peninsula, and
the adoption of actions that resolve the existing security deficit and, when
necessary, provide security assurances (74).
The 2010 NPT Review Conference provides a unique opportunity to
debate on the establishment of a new world security order as the discussions
will cover many existing Cold War doctrines and conceptions of the
role of nuclear weapons. Nor, obviously, will it do to be too optimistic.
As stated, it is materially impossible for all the disarmament and nonproliferation
proposals made by President Barack Obama to be specified
before the conference. Nor should we forget that Russia continues to be
a leading international actor in this area and must be taken into account.
However, today, unlike during the Cold War, US military spending is ten
times greater than that of Russia (not counting the cost of military missions
in Afghanistan and Iraq). Indeed, although before the international
economic crisis erupted President Putin announced a «grandiose» modernisation
of Russia’s armed forces, including its nuclear arsenal, the fact is
that in February 2009 Moscow announced a 15% cut in its military budget
owing, among other things, to the reduction in state revenues as a result
as the drastic fall in the price of raw materials.
The NPT Review Conference of May 2010 needs to come up with a real
agreement on short-term disarmament and non-proliferation priorities—
not simply a high-sounding declaration adopted by consensus and with
commitments in limbo, very much in the style of the Treaty review conferences,
but full of nuances on its legal, political or moral value, as occurred
in 1995 and 2000. In this respect the current US Administration deserves
a vote of confidence in its disarmament and non-proliferation initiatives,
especially as it was so widely criticised for lack of cooperation. It is a duty
of everyone to restore confidence in the nuclear non-proliferation regime
in general and in the NPT in particular.
(74) Vid., http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2005/ebsp2005n017.html.
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