Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

The AF PAK scenario
and Afghanistan indirectly and both Gulf and Iranian money promote the
spread of their respective versions of Islam through their local affiliates.
Iran, like the other neighbours, acts indirectly, above all through the Shia
minorities in this Af-Pak scenario and even if only for its aversion to the
Taliban it would not want to see the Kabul government collapse, although
it could play at wearing down its US enemy in the Afghan scenario. The
spread of Sunni Jihadism could affect Iranian Baluchistan through the
action of the tribal groups that are allies of the Taliban and other insurgent
or criminal groups linked to drug trafficking. Although there are various
sides to this diverse issue, it is evident that an improvement in the Iranian
regime’s relations with the West could contribute to more positive Iranian
action in Afghan affairs, in which Tehran has been accused of arming
insurgent groups and of constant intervention in border areas, especially
that of Herat.
Without regional responsibility there will be no solution and there are
no clear indications of these countries wishing to progress from the wearing
down of ISAF to the disastrous withdrawal of international forces and
the destruction of the current unstable balance in Afghanistan and the
surrounding areas, to the benefit of the Taliban.
Although absent from the military field, the Arab countries of the Gulf
and Saudi Arabia, are nevertheless—and for very different reasons—one
of the financial, political and religious/ideological keys to the question.
Arab money continues to finance madrassas and Islamic institutions of all
kinds in Afghanistan and Pakistan and it seems clear that some Jihadist
and insurgent groups receive substantial aid from this part of the world.
Their ability to mediate is important and could be useful in achieving
rapprochements with part of the insurgency at some time. The Saudi
dynasty’s role of guardians of Mecca accords this country’s institutions a
significant weight throughout the Ummah and therefore the leadership and
authority of the Saudi monarchs and clergy is undeniable.
CONCLUSION
Any strategic analysis or situation report on the Afghanistan-Pakistan
scenario, the so-called AF PAK, of the type that are circulated in
Washington or any other Atlantic or European capital, points out that we
are currently at a key, decisive and crucial moment in the stabilisation and
reconstruction endeavour the international community has embarked on
in this regional scenario, particularly the United States, NATO and their
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