Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

The AF PAK scenario
For various reasons, and in different ways, these three great countries
must be involved in any strategy in the region.
The rivalry and wars between the two nuclear powers India and
Pakistan, which are focused on the Kashmir conflict, are the origin of
Pakistan’s national security doctrine which concentrates military force on
the east border, thereby reducing its capacity to act against the Taliban
enemy to the west. Pakistan’s inferiority—from a conventional viewpoint—
vis-à-vis the Indian giant explains its use of irregular instruments of attrition
such as the Jihadist groups that operate in Kashmir or in other parts
of the area and the connivance of the Pakistan intelligence apparatus with
the terrorist conglomerate. Their destabilising ability is huge and potentially
devastating, as was proven when the countries were on the verge of
war in 2002 following the attacks in Kashmir and Delhi.
The Pakistani doctrine of «strategic depth», which spurred support first
for Hekmatyar and later for the Taliban, springs from this rivalry with India
and from this conventional inferiority. Even if only to put an end to terrorist
activities it would be worth continuing the «all-embracing dialogue» between
Indians and Pakistanis. Although this process has been maintained
and the bilateral climate has improved, even despite the November 2008
attacks in Mumbai, no progress has been made in any of the pending
issues of substance (Kashmir, Siachen Glaciar, Sir Creek, etc.) which are
still poisoning relations between the two countries that resulted from the
division of what was once British India.
The Indians refused to allow this issue to be included—even indirectly—in
the portfolio of the US envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan,
Richard Holbrooke, or the matter to even be mentioned in the regional
dossier. However it escapes nobody’s notice that any progress in the «allembracing
dialogue» would help improve things in the region and, accordingly,
the Afghan question and the very situation of Pakistan.
Western failure in Afghanistan leading to the destabilisation of Pakistan
would ultimately be the worst news for India, which would immediately suffer
the consequences vis-à-vis its Jihadist and terrorist enemy at home and
abroad. While India asserts itself in the world as a regional power with global
aspirations and works at building up its extraordinary military might, it should
not be forgotten that unless sound mechanisms are established for settling
its conflicts with Pakistan and progress is made in them, creating a climate of
greater confidence and shared interests in the security field, there will always
be a risk of bilateral crisis and backtracking towards confrontation.
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