Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

INTRODUCTION
Ed u a r d o Se r r a Re x a c h
This is the fourth consecutive year I have been entrusted with coordinating
the papers that make up the Strategic Panorama which,
as usual, is the result of collaboration between the Instituto de
Estudios Estratégicos (IEEE) of the Ministry of Defence and the Real
Instituto Elcano (RIE). The panel of specialists chosen as contributors
to this year’s Panorama is furthermore a good example of the progressive
collaboration between Spanish institutions for purposes of general
interest which, in my view, is very good news. Indeed, in addition to the
Ministry of Defence and the RIE, other contributors to this edition are
the think-tank INCIPE, through its director, and two universities, that
of Granada and the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
(UNED), each through a professor.
Like last year, 2009 was marked by the economic crisis resulting from
the financial turmoil that erupted in the United States in summer 2007.
Nevertheless, the violent storm unleashed in 2008, which aroused fears of
a total collapse of the financial system, has now given way to a lingering
fog which looks set to start lifting soon. Last year we quoted the United
States Director of Intelligence, who stated in his address to Congress on
February 2009 that the instability deriving from the financial crisis is the
biggest threat to national security in the short and medium term, more
so than terrorism. Indeed, not only because of the political instability the
economic crisis can cause—and is causing, but also because it can fuel
Islamist fundamentalism on the one hand and contribute to the creation
of new failed states on the other, it multiplies existing threats. And by
requiring other budgetary efforts to be stepped up, the crisis can likewise
trigger a reduction in the security and defence spending of the most developed
countries, adding to the possibilities of war. We have therefore again
— 11 —