Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

The future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime: the 2010 NPT review conference
At any rate, everything appears to indicate that President Obama’s initiative
has come at a good time. It should be borne in mind that Russia’s
current economic situation does not allow it to increase its strategic
nuclear potential in the short term, particularly considering that over the
next ten years it needs to replace at least 300 intercontinental groundbased
ballistic missiles and a further 100 missiles on board Soviet-made
nuclear submarines. From this viewpoint it would even be feasible to think
of strategic nuclear reductions in the region of 1,000 warheads.
Another of the important novelties is that Russia has shown itself to be
in favour of dialogue on tactical nuclear weapons only after the talks on
the reduction of strategic offensive weapons are concluded. The Russian
foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, stated at the end of October 2009 that he
was sure that the new treaty on the reduction of strategic weapons will
establish a link between offensive and defensive weapons.
Naturally, the future architecture of the US missile defence system
will also determine strategic nuclear relations with Russia, especially after
President Obama announced he was scrapping the project to install part of
the components of the missile shield in Eastern Europe. The US president
justified the controversial decision by the need to adapt military assets
to the development of the Iranian nuclear programme in recent years.
According to the White House, this had made it necessary to replace the
initial defence programme—much more costly, technologically advanced
(and, above all, more politically explosive)—with the simple deployment
of SM-3 interceptors. These systems will first be installed in ships and
will subsequently (not before 2015) begin to be deployed on the ground,
chiefly in some southern European countries and Turkey. «Our new missile
defence architecture in Europe will provide stronger, smarter and swifter
defences of American forces and America’s allies. It is more comprehensive
than the previous programme; it deploys capabilities that are proven
and cost-effective», stated Barack Obama when announcing his decision
(54). For his part, the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, applauded
the US decision, which he described as responsible and positive and as
giving «impetus to the joint work to address the risks of the proliferation
of nuclear weapons»(55).
(54) «Obama renuncia al escudo antimisiles», El País, 18 September 2009, http://
www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Obama/renuncia/escudo/antimisiles/
epepiint/20090918elpepiint_2/Tes.
(55) «Una victoria diplomática para Rusia», El País, 18 September 2009, http://www.elpais.
com/articulo/internacional/victoria/diplomatica/Rusia/elpepiint/20090918elpepiint_3/
Tes.
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