Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

Vicente Garrido Rebolledo
Nevertheless, the starting point of the 2010 Conference is that any progress
in non-proliferation must go hand in hand with significant progress
in the field of disarmament in order for the NPT to retain its credibility in
the future. In this connection Barack Obama’s advent to the White House
has marked an important turning point with respect to George W. Bush,
especially if we consider that the new Administration has launched numerous
nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation proposals which have led
to the unblocking of some international initiatives and agreements. Some
examples of the foregoing are the signing of a new START Treaty with the
Russian Federation (scheduled for the end of 2009) on the reduction of
strategic nuclear arsenals, the negotiation of which has in turn been made
possible by a substantial change in the architecture of the US missile
shield (which initially involved stationing a ground radar on Czech territory
and ten laser missile interceptors in Poland); the ratification of the CTBT;
and the negotiation of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT or Fissban).
THE WHY AND WHEREFORE OF A NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION
TREATY
Although the idea of nuclear non-proliferation began to be considered
in 1961, the term itself was not coined until four years later following the
start of negotiations on the NPT. It was initially based on the statistical
danger nuclear proliferation posed: on the one hand, the possibility that
a nuclear war could also increase the number of states in possession of
nuclear weapons; and on the other, concern about the devastating effects
of an accidental launch of these weapons by the US or USSR (11).
Following the explosion of China’s first uranium 235-based nuclear
bomb on 16 October 1964 (contrary to all calculations) (12), the other four
nuclear states (the United States, the USSR, the United Kingdom and
France, in order of access to nuclear weapons) began to be aware of the
problem posed by an increasing number of countries possessing nuclear
weapons and of the need to set a limit, by means of political and diplo-
(11) For a detailed analysis of the negotiations and contents of the NPT see GARRIDO
REBOLLEDO, Vicente, El régimen de no proliferación nuclear: participación e implicaciones
para España, doctoral thesis, Servicio de publicaciones de la UCM, Madrid, 1995
(1032 pp.).
(12) One of the most complete studies on the history of nuclear energy and the political
motivations of states in relation to their access to nuclear weapons is GOLDSCHMIDT,
Bertrand, The Atomic Complex. A Worldwide Political History of Nuclear Energy,
American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, 1982.
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