Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

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The future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime: the 2010 NPT review conference has assumed that life-saving property for Pakistan» (72). This assertion helps structure Pakistan’s (unofficial) nuclear doctrine around two premises: first, that nuclear weapons are necessary to neutralise India’s conventional superiority vis-à-vis a possible attack on its territory; and second, that nuclear weapons make it a match for India in terms of power (in strategic but also political terms). However, there is a substantial difference in the doctrine or strategic thought of both countries: Pakistan, unlike India, considers militarily utilisable nuclear weapons (even in the event of a conventional war) to be not only a defensive instrument but also an offensive instrument and even envisages their use in a low-intensity conflict or in defence against «punitive action» by third parties (73). As for Israel, any agreement involves establishing a Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (applying not only to nuclear weapons, in view of the chemical and/or biological capabilities of some countries in the region). It should be remembered that only three Middle East states (Jordan, Kuwait and Libya, in addition to Turkey if we include it in the area) have total safeguard agreements in force with the IAEA. What is more, developments in the nuclear crisis with Iran (and, to a lesser extent, talks with North Korea aimed at its denuclearisation and return to the NPT, a situation that is not envisaged in the short term) will also influence debates in the field of the NPT Conference as what is at stake is, after all, the ability of the non-proliferation regime and of the Treaty in particular to stem Tehran’s military nuclear aspirations. In November 2005 Mohammed El-Baradei, former director of the IAEA, announced a document containing a package of measures to advance in non-proliferation and nuclear weapons control which is still valid: establishment of a moratorium of five to ten years on the construction of new uranium enrichment and plutonium separation facilities; conversion of highly enriched uranium-fuelled research reactors into non-military uranium and making the former unnecessary for peaceful nuclear uses; adoption of the IAEA Additional Protocol as a compulsory verification regulation of the NPT; involvement of the United Nations Security Council in cases where a country decides to withdraw from the NPT; commitment on the part of all (72) General ISLAM BEG, Mirza, «Pakistan’s Nuclear Imperatives», National Development and Security, No. 19, February 1997, pp. 23-75. (73) SETHI, Manpreet, «Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy», Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), article no. 2361, 23 August 2007, http://www.ipcs.org/newKashmirLevel2.jsp? action=showView&kValue=2377&subCatID=null&mod=null — 222 —
Vicente Garrido Rebolledo states to comply and prosecute cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear materials and technologies (in accordance with Security Council Resolution 1540, of 28 April 2004); speeding up of the implementation of unequivocal nuclear disarmament commitments by the five nuclear states and, especially, negotiation of a treaty on the irreversibility of the production of fissionable materials for nuclear programmes as a starting point; and, finally, recognition of the volatility of the long drawn-out tension leading to proliferation in regions such as the Middle East and Korean Peninsula, and the adoption of actions that resolve the existing security deficit and, when necessary, provide security assurances (74). The 2010 NPT Review Conference provides a unique opportunity to debate on the establishment of a new world security order as the discussions will cover many existing Cold War doctrines and conceptions of the role of nuclear weapons. Nor, obviously, will it do to be too optimistic. As stated, it is materially impossible for all the disarmament and nonproliferation proposals made by President Barack Obama to be specified before the conference. Nor should we forget that Russia continues to be a leading international actor in this area and must be taken into account. However, today, unlike during the Cold War, US military spending is ten times greater than that of Russia (not counting the cost of military missions in Afghanistan and Iraq). Indeed, although before the international economic crisis erupted President Putin announced a «grandiose» modernisation of Russia’s armed forces, including its nuclear arsenal, the fact is that in February 2009 Moscow announced a 15% cut in its military budget owing, among other things, to the reduction in state revenues as a result as the drastic fall in the price of raw materials. The NPT Review Conference of May 2010 needs to come up with a real agreement on short-term disarmament and non-proliferation priorities— not simply a high-sounding declaration adopted by consensus and with commitments in limbo, very much in the style of the Treaty review conferences, but full of nuances on its legal, political or moral value, as occurred in 1995 and 2000. In this respect the current US Administration deserves a vote of confidence in its disarmament and non-proliferation initiatives, especially as it was so widely criticised for lack of cooperation. It is a duty of everyone to restore confidence in the nuclear non-proliferation regime in general and in the NPT in particular. (74) Vid., http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2005/ebsp2005n017.html. — 223 —
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MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA SPANISH INSTI
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DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INSTITUTION
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INTRODUCTION
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Introduction included a chapter on
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Introduction To this end he propose
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Introduction II The economic crisis
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Introduction The next question aske
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THE GLOBAL RECESSION AND ITS IMPACT
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Federico Steinberg Whesler CHART 3
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CHAPTER TWO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS
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Climate change and its security imp
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CHAPTER THREE INTERNATIONAL RELATIO
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International relations and the new
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THE AF PAK SCENARIO Jo s é Ma r í
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THE TREATY OF LISBON AND THE COMMON
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Strategic Panorama 2009 - 2010 - IEEE

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